Peter Neary image

Peter Neary

60 Votes

Oxford

  • Oxford, England

About

  • Professor of Economics (Emeritus from 2020)
  • Research Professor, Georgetown University in Qatar, Doha (2020)
  • President of the Royal Economic Society (2017-18)
  • President of the European Economic Association (2002)

Voting History

Question A: The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').

For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B: Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question C: The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question C: Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Europe

Short Selling

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would result in significantly less short selling.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: Regulatory restrictions on short selling - such as no naked shorts, temporary bans in times of crisis - make it difficult for optimists and pessimists to have equal influence on asset prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Europe

Vaccines in Europe

Question A: EU Covid-19 vaccination efforts are significantly behind those of Israel, Serbia, the UK and the US.

Offering substantially higher prices per dose would have resulted in larger capacity investments by vaccine makers and accelerated distribution in Europe significantly.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
5
Question B: In the current situation, paying for more production capacity would be better than offering higher prices for vaccines.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
5
Question C: If the EU started paying prices above 100 euros per dose, it would on net reduce the cost of the pandemic to the EU via more lives saved and shorter lockdowns.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

Tackling Obesity

Question A: Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would be more welfare-improving than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
5
Question C: Setting targets for schools to reduce obesity (e.g. by diverting financial resources to improve school meals or add cookery to the curriculum) would reduce social welfare because schools in deprived areas, where obesity is higher, are already struggling to deliver the core curriculum.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Europe

The US Minimum Wage

Question A: The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do.


A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Europe

After Brexit

Question A: The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Leaving the single market and customs unions imposes non-tariff trade barriers that will impact negatively on trade volumes
-see background information here
Question B: The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Some countries will be negatively affected (e.g. Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark) but larger and more Eastern ones are unlikely to suffer much
-see background information here
Europe

Antitrust Action

Requiring Facebook to divest WhatsApp and Instagram is likely to make society better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: Clearly a reduction in market power, reducing ability to coordinate across brands, would raise consumer and total welfare
Europe

Personnel Economics

Question A: Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Question B: Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: With some allowance for performance bonuses, the statement is accurate for many organizations. This is not necessarily desirable though
-see background information here
Europe

Wealth Taxes

Question A: A wealth tax would be an effective way to reduce inequality.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: A wealth tax in a form discussed in the UK (where individuals could be taxed a percentage of their net worth over £750,000, excluding any personal pension savings and their main home) would be an effective way to improve public finances after the Covid-19 crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
7
Comment: Effective yes. Politically feasible? Unclear
Question C: A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be accomplished at lower cost with modifications to existing taxes, such as income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property tax.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: In principle, yes. Raising capital gains tax in particular would tax flows of new wealth. But a wealth tax is still desirable.
Question A: Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Question B: In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: A classic case of natural monopoly. Unfortunately, it is (almost) at the global level so countervailing action would have to be global too.
Question C: The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Europe

Auction Theory

The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: See the Nobel Prize citation!
-see background information here
Strong competition from foreign producers is likely to encourage greater private sector expenditure on research and development in the home market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: The ECB should aim to achieve an inflation rate that averages 2% over time.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
8
Question B:
The ECB should take account of the environmental implications of its policy decisions.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question C: The objectives set for the ECB by Treaty should make maximum sustainable employment of equal importance as price stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question D: European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
8
Question A: Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Question B: Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
1
Agree
6
Question C: Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should have priority in public healthcare funding even in countries where other diseases cause more death and disability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Switching funding away from existing programs may not be wise in all cases. Extra funding should be targeted to a vaccination program
Question A: Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
Comment: Hardly controversial in itself. More so is its importance relative to ideology, history, and deep economic forces
Question B: Most European countries have larger social welfare systems than the United States in part because the latter is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: The sad passing of Alberto Alesina reminds us of his work showing this; though ideology and public perceptions of heterogeneity also matter
Question A: Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Classis results of Weitzman suggest that quantity controls are desirable when marginal benefits are inelastic relative to costs
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question B: Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Same response applies as to A): on both efficiency and equity grounds, allocating by quantity not price is better in a crisis
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question C: Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: To earlier arguments can be added the externalities associated with mass innoculation: huge social benefits irrespective of ability to pay
-see background information here
Question A: Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Mismanagement in UK and US may mean high costs there too; but their economies are more resilient and their credit ratings higher than LDCs
Question B: A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Widespread sovereign defaults are the likely alternative, which would reduce the pace of recovery from the pandemic globally
Question C: Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Morally repugnant in the current situation; but also economically unwise in an age of global supply chains
Question A: Government support to private firms in the form of debt (either directly or with the help of public guarantees) is desirable, but risks leaving them with too much leverage to invest and grow in the future.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: Providing funds to viable businesses in the form of equity injections is a vital complement to debt support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
7
Comment: Desirable in principle. But public-sector bandwidth is limited right now; tailoring equity injections to individual firms a massive task
Question C: With the EU ban on state aid suspended, government capital injections should be provided via a newly created pan-European equity fund, rather than be left to national governments acting independently.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
7
Comment: More EU-wide cooperation is desirable. This proposal risks bureaucracy and underpinning increasing authoritarianism in Hungary and Poland
Question A:

Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Some groups will gain, but on average low-income workers are more likely to suffer unemployment, lower incomes, and less access to amenities
Question B: With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
8
Comment: Home-schooling is hard work, even for highly-educated parents, and in most cases a poor substitute for school
Question C: Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: This is a value judgement, though one that likely commands broad support. Putting it into practice will be very difficult though.
Question A: Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
4
Agree
8
Comment: The alternative to lockdowns is not a return to "normal" but many people unwilling to work even though allowed to, and soaring death rates
Question B: While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Common monetary policy combined with unlinked national fiscal policies has never made sense. In a crisis its problems are even greater
Question C: Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
7
Comment: Coronabonds would only be credible and equitable between countries if issued centrally, and that would require much greater integration
Europe

Coronavirus

Question A: Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
6
Question C: The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Disagree
7
Comment: A Draghi-style "whatever it takes" commitment can stabilize markets and avoid mass bank runs; but fiscal support would help a lot
Question A: Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: Surpluses defer consumption; doing this indefinitely makes no sense. That said, German opposition to inflation is understandably deep-rooted
Question B: The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: The current monetary-fiscal-policy disconnect is unsustainable. Provided it is prudent and targeted, expansionary fiscal policy makes sense
Question C: If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
8
Comment: "essential" begs a lot of questions. Desirable definitely, though without new institutional structures, not clear how that can be effected
Europe

The European Green Deal

Question A: The European Union goal of reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Growth may be lower; but could be lower still if environmental degradation proceeds unchecked. Markets undevalue environmental quality
Question B: Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
6
Comment: Both are good alternatives to command-and-control, incentivizing concern for environmental quality. The choice between them is contingent
-see background information here
Question C: A carbon border tax targeting imports from non-EU countries with less strict climate policies is likely to harm developing economies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Provided border taxes are not merely protectionist, they are likely to encourage better environmental policies in developing countries
Europe

‘Getting Brexit Done’

Question A: Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: This could happen if confidence improves, but exchange rate fluctuations in the first post-election week suggest markets are unconvinced
-see background information here
Question B: Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: UK policy seems focused on committing to leave hoping to get a better deal as a result. Unlikely to happen; EU has stronger bargaining power
Question C: Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
1
Agree
7
Comment: All professionally-respected studies show that barriers with EU will impose economic costs for which no other trade agreement can compensate
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question A: Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
Comment: Extreme weather events may destabilize financial markets tho risks from global warming increasing pressure on migration are likely greater
Question B: The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
Comment: Very hard to forecast
Europe

Research and Development

Question A: Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: In principle publicly funding R&D can respond better to social priorities and internalize spillovers. Doing so in practice is a challenge
-see background information here
Question B: Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: The same superiority in principle, and problems of implementation in practive, arise as for (A)
Question A: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
Comment: A great addition to economists’ toolkit - tho we should not expect too much of them
Question B: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
Comment: Significant? Yes. Quantitatively important? Not in all cases. Need to keep the Deaton-Pritchett qualifications in mind
Europe

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
7
Comment: I agree with this statement, though maximizing shareholder value also encourages efficient profit-making which has social value
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with small impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: Modern corporations should be regulated, including anti-trust, regulation to ensure compliance with environmental and labor standards, etc.
Question C:
Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
6
Comment: Regulation is a multi-faceted goal; legistating on the composion of boards of directors may not be a good instrument to achieve it
Question A:

Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Rising inequality is a contributing factor; but real or imagined threats from immigration are more salient in Europe. Populists exploit both
Question B: Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
7
Comment: Announcement effects of such policies could have short-term benefits; but the direct effects will only be long-term
Question C: European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Retreating from austerity in UK, or boosting Eurozone aggregate demand, plus efforts to reduce inequality should help, if sold positively
Question A:

At this point, there is little that the European Central Bank can do to increase or maintain output in the Eurozone.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
7
Comment: ECB can’t do much given low interest rates, but I can stop things getting worse
Question B: When the economy is operating below its potential, larger fiscal deficits are likely to increase demand and output.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Only models with implausible degrees of wage/price flexibility predict otherwise.
Question C: When the economy is operating below its potential and monetary policy is at the effective lower bound, fiscal policy should prioritize increasing output over decreasing public debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
7
Comment: Agree, but this is more a political/moral judgement than a scientifically grounded view. And depends on circumstances, esp. size of deficit
Europe

ECB Appointments

Question A:

Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
Comment: "Competence" should be interpreted broadly: commanding academic respect but also with personal, political and administrative skills
Question B: Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
8
Comment: The track record to date is not bad. Hopefully this will continue. It would clearly be worrying if the post became totally politicized.

On bids for infrastructure projects, the average European would be better off if Europe’s governments favored European firms over Chinese firms (or firms from any other country with non-profit-related geopolitical strategies) — even if it means sometimes choosing a higher-cost bidder.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
Comment: It depends. The trade-off is between security and buying from the best supplier. Excluding all foreign bidders is just protectionism.
Question A: Breaking the “doom loop” — a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks — would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Regulators should try to break the doom loop by assigning positive risk weights — in calculating banks’ capital requirements — to banks’ holdings of domestic and other Eurozone sovereign bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question C: Breaking the doom loop would impose substantial costs on powerful political constituencies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
8
Europe

Gentrification

Residents of big European cities would be better off, on balance, if governments did more to counter gentrification, for example by using rent and other housing subsidies, public housing investments, zoning regulations, or similar policies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Question A: A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the likelihood of another financial crisis in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Strongly Disagree
8
Question A: Overall, public spending on the arts in Europe creates benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: This is a value judgement not a statement about efficiency. Cost issues and equity in access should be taken into account too.
Question B: Additional public spending on the arts in Europe would create incremental benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Europe

European Champions

Question A: The average European is better off if Europe’s competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
7
Comment: Case-by-case considerations matter. Not clear that a general rule is ideal
Question B: If China and other countries use policies that create giant international firms, then the average European is better off if Europe's competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
6
Comment: If the choice is between a world Chinese monopoly or a world duopoly with a European firm, then subsidies are justified. But details matter
Europe

Quarterly Earnings

Question A: Letting publicly traded European firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Comment: Not my specialty. I would expect source of funding rather than frequency of reporting to be more important in promoting long-term thinking
Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders of European firms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Comment: Same answer as to (A), with the added proviso that long-term thinking may be good for society but not necessarily for all shareholders
Europe

Social Responsibility

Question A: To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
5
Comment: An old debate. John Stuart Mill nailed it: private sector to maximize efficiency; public to look after distribution, social goals etc.
Question B: To the extent that Norway’s global government pension fund makes investments for social and environmental objectives — apart from investments that would bring the highest expected risk-adjusted returns — it improves the welfare of Norwegians.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
5
Comment: Weakly agree; tho main benefit of the Norwegian fund is as the poster-boy of how to manage windfalls to mitigate the natural resource curse
Europe

EU Fiscal Rules

Question A: The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Maastricht rules are very restrictive. Some kind of closer fiscal union needed to control moral hazard, but stabilisation more important
Question B: The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: The right decision given current rules - which should be changed.
Question C: If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
6
Comment: What’s good for Italy ...
Europe

Ride-Sharing Caps

Question A: Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: Restricting quantity will raise prices and lower average welfare. Effects on congestion unlikely to be significant
Question B:
To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Singapore pioneered road pricing decades ago. Sad that it has not been more widely copied. Scarce resources given away freely makes no sense
People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Simple demographics: all the studies I know show that, on average, immigrants are younger, healthier and have fewer dependents than natives
Europe

Increasing Returns

Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Ideas can be protected, and imitation is costly, but the statement is broadly correct, with huge implications for R&D and antitrust policy
-see background information here

-see background information here

Voters overestimate the effect that current governments have on their economies’ concurrent economic performance.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Emergency intervention can have immediate effects. But policy mostly has slow effects, especially on aggregate productivity
Europe

Autonomous Cars

Over the next decade, autonomous cars will raise average welfare in the EU by at least as much as smartphones have over the past decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Comment: Autonomous cars could contribute to lower emissions and greatly reduced congestion; but only with consistent urban planning
Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: This target is hard to influence with any instrument; monetary policy is not the right one
Europe

Digital Sales Tax

Question A: The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal:

An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Uncertain
5
Question B:
If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Strongly Disagree
6
Comment: Given the size of the European market, favouring EU-based firms need not be so costly, provided a robust approach is taken to market abuse.
Europe

China-Europe Trade

Question A: Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Gains from trade on average is one of the most widely accepted predictions of economic theory, stemming from specialisation and wider choice
-see background information here
Question B: Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: As with any change to an economy's structure, it is inevitable that some groups will suffer. Such gains can be offset by a social safety net
-see background information here
Question C: If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
6
Strongly Disagree
7
Comment: Policy effects in multilateral contexts are hard to predict, but for both economic and political reasons such tariffs would entail self-harm
Europe

Greece

Question A: Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
6
Question B: Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Disagree
7
Question C: If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
7
Europe

Bitcoins

Question A: Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
7
Comment: Bitcoins have feature of currency, though volatility makes them undesirable except for speculation. Blockchain technology more important
Question B: Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to Dutch tulips in the 1630s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
6
Comment: If I knew the answer I would take a position on them!
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.

Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: More fragmented demand side (mainly private rather than public suppliers) a factor; also looser regulation on marketing (not R&D)
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Hostility to immigrants deters newcomers. Mainland European and Asian countries are seeking to benefit from this.
Question A:

Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Strongly Disagree
6
Europe

Board Quotas for Women

Question A: All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: I am in favour of this kind of measure in principle but do not want to claim that it would affect shareholder value for the better; no worse
Question B: Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Benefits yes; more openings for women, encouraging human capital acquisition, better decisions. I am not sure they would be "substantial"
Europe

Energy Sources

Question A: Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: Given revenue neutrality, choosing between the policies hinges on uncertainty (which renewables?) & on macro considerations: stimulus better
Question B: Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Comment: These policies are a global public good: clear net benefits for the world (emissions fall) but not necessarily for Germany
Question C: Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Definitely positive, though clearly not necessarily very large relative to the scale of global emissions
Europe

Behavioral Economics

Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Europe

Refugees in Germany

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: Net benefits from increased labor supply. Losses to some workers possible. Poor integration could lead to social unrest: safety nets needed
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Some workers will be displaced, some will retrain, the new technology is likely to diffuse slowly, especially in service industries.
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: I agree in principle, though compensation rarely occurs in practice and would require Nordic levels of income support and retraining.
Europe

Ride Sharing

Question A: Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
Comment: Taxis are excessively regulated in many cities, so increased competition is desirable. But regulation also has a role in protecting consumer
Question B: Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: More competition is desirable. In this scenario Uber's only advantage is its superior technology and organisation, likely to be short-lived.
Question C: Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question A: Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: "All else equal" agreed. But it risks triggering further disillusionment with globalization. Accompanying macro stimulus would ease the pain
Question B: Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: All else equal again. And the details matter. Something like Danish "flexicurity" would be good, naive deregulation bad.
Europe

ECB Asset Purchases

Question A: The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Reduced but not eliminated. Monetary policy alone cannot get the EU out of deflation, only a rise in external demand or a fiscal stimulus.
Question B: If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: "Substantial" Is a big ask, and growth will ultimately be affected more by structural issues and demand-side shocks
Europe

Diversified Investing

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
9
Comment: A small industry exists to help naive investors beat the market. It should be subject to mandatory health warnings.
Europe

Aging

Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Automation could conceivably offset fall in labor input to population ratio but unlikely
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
8
Comment: Especially if not compulsory, such changes could even be welcomed by increasingly healthy 65-year olds
Europe

City of London

Question A: All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Local costs (high house prices, inequality) but clear EU-wide gains to agglomeration. Unsustainable outside the Single Market however.
Question B: All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Balance in UK labour markets is more tilted towards employers: ironically this also makes incumbent firms less likely to stay post-Brexit
Europe

Italy’s Banks

Question A: Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
Comment: Sooner or later, bullets have to be bitten, zombie banks have to be bailed out. Sooner is better. Exactly how is much harder to answer.
Question B: If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Agree
8
Comment: Possibility of moral hazard in medium term versus high probability of financial instability in short term. A tough choice but a clear one.
Europe

Brexit

Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
8
Comment: Definitely a negative impact, though how much depends on how hard is the Brexit and how long the associated uncertainty persists
-see background information here
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Europe is more important to the UK than vice versa, so the effect on the rest of the EU should be less severe though still negative
Europe

Congestion Pricing

In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Travelling on congested roads, no matter how desirable to the individual, imposes costs on other users which governments should internalise
On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Productivity has increased, though in Russia and other countries the distributional consequences have been regressive
Europe

Trade Within Europe

Question A: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Greater integration has led to classical gains from trade through specialization, as well as new gains from exploiting supply chains
Question B: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: It is not true that many low-skilled workers have lost out, especially considering improved quality and lower prices; but some have lost
Europe

Local Tax Incentives

Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: Providing information and helping foreign firms cope with bureaucracy are desirable; direct grants are unlikely to match their full costs
Question B: Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: Competition on services and in providing information is desirable; competition on subsidies and tax breaks risks a race to the bottom
Europe

Migration Within Europe

Question A: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
8
Comment: All the evidence points to migration as improving productivity in host countries, with very small negative effects on displaced workers
Question B: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
6
Comment: This is definitely a widespread perception, whipped up by populist politicians; but migrants typically bring skills and consume few services