About
- MIT Institute Professor
- Nobel Prize, Economics (2024)
- Fordham Trailblazer Award (2020)
- Editor-in-chief of Econometrica (2011-2015)
Voting History
Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Comment: I am obviously not impartial. Summary of my view: constitutions, laws and institutional practices provide the framework within which other decisions are made. The framework matters greatly, but there is also quite a bit of freedom to make different choices within it.
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Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: There is controversy on this, but much of it is due to comparing between countries with different democracy scores, which is not easy to do. When countries democratize (for endogenous or exogenous reasons), within seven or eight years, they start growing significantly faster.
-see background information here |
Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: I agree with this in the medium-to-long-run. Weakening of democracy can go hand-in-hand with special deals for some firms that then invest more and prop up growth in the short run.. Some of the damages, e.g., from weaker legal system or uncertainty, are only realized over time.
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Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.
Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
6 |
|
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Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: I believe the distribution of impact on middle income, Americans would be positive, but the substantial part is uncertain.
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Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Zero taxes on capital, combined with relatively high taxes on labor are very problematic, both because of their distributional implications and also because they distort technology choice, encouraging excessive automation.
-see background information here |
Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The reason why capital taxation is so low at the moment seems to be that several temporary generous depreciation allowance statutes and other giveaways to investors then became permanent.
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Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Public firms have better access to credit and their actions may be more transparent, but it is not clear whether having fewer public firms has become a major factor in economic growth. Public firms may be subject to more short-termist pressure as well.
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Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Agree |
4 |
Comment: This sounds reasonable but I do not know the specific evidence supporting or contradicting it.
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Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Although there is some uncertainty and government intervention could slow down innovation & harm the introduction of new services, the AI field right now is so oligopolistic that well-designed antitrust should be able to increase competition and reduce prices.
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Once again there is some uncertainty, because successful antitrust would reduce the huge investments that OpenAI is planning. But overall, a more competitive field is likely to increase innovation and the quality of innovation. It may even enable a better direction of technology.
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: It is not either or. We need both more competition, and also much better regulation. Importantly, we need a redirection of AI in a more socially beneficial direction. To achieve this we may need to slow down the huge investments in data collection and moral training by incumbents
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
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Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Legalizing marijuana in places where it's illegal, without interfering with state policies that have already legalized it would be an improvement. There is no evidence that legalization has led to big negative effects and further legalization would reduce criminal involvement
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Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: It would first depend on whether these imports are shifted to other countries. Second, if it encourages domestic production, it would depend on how automated the new production facilities would be. In sum, there would be some positive effect, but difficult to know how large.
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Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Again, the medium-term price effects would depend on whether imports are shifted to other countries and if there is production domestically, how efficient these new facilities would be.
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Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.
Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Uncertain |
4 |
|
|
Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Uncertain |
5 |
|
|
Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191
The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: "Substantially" is not immediate, but the sanctions have certainly made building, maintaining and manning the Russian war machine more difficult.
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Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would lead to substantially less employment in the US steel industry than in the absence of such a deal.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Question B: Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would cause no measurable damage to the American economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
5 |
|
|
Question A: The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: US GDP is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: "Substantially" is unlikely. More spending probably increased GDP if the counterfactual is nothing. But other ways of spending the same some would have increased GDP more. Subsidizing capital often comes at the expense of labor, though there are different findings on this.
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question B: Corporate capital stock is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Even if the effects on GDP are uncertain and does on employment could be negative, capital income tax cuts tend to increase investment.
-see background information here |
Question C: Real median wages are substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Subsidizing equipment and digital capital also encourages automation, which does not necessarily increase wages and employment. Once again, there are different results on this in the literature, but my assessment would not be a positive effect.
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question D: Federal tax revenues are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question E: Charitable donations are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
3 |
|
Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings - as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan - will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
4 |
Comment: More generally, Georgist ideas may be worth revisiting.
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Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Evidence by Kleven and co. on effects of childrearing on women's careers is solid. Educational gaps have closed. But there are major occupational gaps that account for significant gender wage differences. How much of this is discrimination or socially determined is still unknown.
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Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: There is solid evidence that flexibility and options to have regular hours for mothers helps with women's careers (see link). But I'm not aware of conclusive evidence on the effects of "disproportionate rewards for long work hours".
-see background information here |
Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: I think they are useful tools, but I chose "uncertain" because of the word "essential", which suggests that they are both critical and immutable. Having fiscal rules that are unbreakable may be too costly during exceptional periods, such as the pandemic or a depression.
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Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Difficult to know for sure, but it seems a plausible reading of the evidence.
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Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: In a number of cases, greater fiscal flexibility may have been useful. Difficult to know.
|
Question A: Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: It is strange and inefficient to have a series of regulations for banks, but so little for non-bank financial intermediaries. This asymmetry would likely become more consequential with decentralized finance and digital assets.
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Question C: Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The moral hazard problem is clear in this case.
|
Question A: An $8 cap on late fees for credit cards, as proposed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Requiring that all credit card fees and interest rates be transparent, prominently displayed, and easily searchable online would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: It is uncertain whether most customers would search, process and act on this type of information, given busy schedules, other transaction costs and sometimes low financial literacy.
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Question C: Consumers would be measurably better off if efforts to reduce the impact of so-called ‘junk fees’ across the economy concentrated on making fees more transparent than on capping specific types of fees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: I am not convinced that transparency would work by itself. Capping fees could backfire, especially if these caps are excessively tight. But on balance, regulation may be better for ticketing consumers than just transparency. Still there is much uncertainty.
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Question A: When evaluating the consequences of any shifts in economic policy regimes, it is essential to consider potential changes in the behavior of economic agents due to revised expectations.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Comment: My reading of the evidence is that major policy changes do shift expectations in some way. The exact manner may be complicated, but expect ational changes are important.
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Question B: The empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects the economy in the short run is most consistent with the assumption that economic agents form rational expectations.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Rational expectations is a very useful benchmark. But there seems to be much heterogeneity and some systematic biases. E.g. it took a long while for inflationary expectations to adjust in Turkey after central bank lost independence and very low interest rate policy got cemented.
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Question C: Economic research has established that the welfare consequences of differences in countries’ growth and level of development are substantially higher than the welfare costs of business cycles.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: The only caveat is really dysfunctional monetary policy and hyperinflation leading to conflict and loss of state capacity, then impacting medium-term growth.
|
Question A: If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
3 |
Comment: We should always be careful in blocking new technologies, hence my answer is "uncertain". But it is not clear what major (positive) innovation spillovers from TikTok are, and social media will have to be regulated. Regulations that also apply to US platforms would be better.
-see background information here |
Question B: If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Yes, unless they are also regulated and this is one reason why regulations that apply to all social media companies are better than just blocking TikTok.
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Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Though breakthroughs in large language models are impressive and appear to be capable of increasing human productivity, there is no evidence that they can be effectively employed in production. Past applications have often disappointed. Current direction of AI is also distorted.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: There is some uncertainty here as well. But in its current direction AI is an "inappropriate technology" for many emerging economies and may slow down their growth, as it seeks to substitutes capital and programming skills for middle and low skills.
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Question A: Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: I would guess that this would depend on Chinese institutions. So long as they remain highly authoritarian and blur the line between the state and the Communist Party, the renminbi will remain less attractive as an international currency than the dollar.
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Question B: Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Deposit insurance is not enough for uninsured depositors. But there are many other tools available within the current regulatory system. The details matter.
|
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: If problem is a run on other banks, then their uninsured depositors should have been insured (e.g., SVB depositors lose money but for the next year, depositors of other banks are fully insured). Instead, authorities bailed out the millionaire depositors of SVB. No logic to this
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Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: How could it be otherwise?
|
Question A: If it is implemented, the proposed increase in the tax rate on earned and business income above $400,000 in the Biden budget, along with other proposed changes to Medicare, would extend the solvency of the Medicare program for the next 25 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question B: If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in drug prices for beneficiaries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
4 |
|
Question C: If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in the development of beneficial new drugs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: Composition of pharma innovation is highly responsive to profits. This may lead to excessive investment in expensive drugs for end-of-life care. Lower profit margins across the board may not have huge effects on overall R&D, and may even lead to better composition of R&D.
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question A: Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of user-generated content available on those platforms.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Probably yes, but the effect may not be substantial and there might be a process of bad content being replaced by higher-quality content.
|
Question B: Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially damage those platforms’ advertising businesses.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Leading platforms' business model is currently based on maximizing user engagement, often via emotional triggers and outrage. Removing some of the questionable user content would reduce this type of engagement and digital advertising revenue.
-see background information here |
Question C: Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of misinformation and disinformation present on those platforms.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: These platforms are playing the roles previously performed by newspapers, but without editorial responsibility. Legal liability would push them towards responsible publishing, especially toward less algorithmic boosting of the most questionable content to maximize user engagement
|
Question A: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: The invisible hand and its formalization, first welfare theorem, are beautiful and thought-provoking. But their insights should not be applied when their conditions are not met. In real world, monopoly, power, politics and other market failures are pervasive and cannot be ignored
|
Question A: A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would do substantial damage to financial markets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would lead to substantially lower employment within six months.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Unlikely to see such strong employment effects in such a short time. But uncertain overall.
|
Question C: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: There are both positive and negative effects, but overall it's a very inefficient way of managing public debt.
|
Question A: Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Non-compete clauses excessively empower firms and are not justified by the arguments their proponents offer. Nevertheless, there is no convincing evidence yet that they have a big impact on wages.
|
Question B: A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Same as the previous question. The evidence is not there yet.
|
Question C: A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: There is no evidence that firms are investing in training because of non-competes.
|
Question A: The market power of ticket-selling intermediaries leads to consumers who ultimately attend the music events paying substantially more and producers receiving substantially less than they would if the intermediary sector were more competitive.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: The present system of initial ticket selling and reselling through secondary ticket intermediaries often leads to large transfers between different groups of ticket buyers that could be partially captured by artists through higher initial ticket prices.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question C: Artists set prices at less than market-clearing levels in an effort to provide access for fans with modest incomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Many factors affect artists' pricing decisions, and there is probably considerable heterogeneity in their priorities.
|
Question A: Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Of course, software, design and services also matter. But networks are social media platforms' most valuable asset.
|
Question B: As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The network-nature of social media platforms means that there are myriad economic and social externalities, and there is no reason to think that either the platforms or users will internalize them.
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question A: When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Provided that policymakers do not commit to excessively rigid rules that remain unchanged when previously-unforeseen contingencies arise.
|
Question B: Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This would depend on how rule-based policies are conceptualized/specified and how (and whether) they respond to emergencies and previously-unforeseen events.
|
Question A: Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of national policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Strategic issues are absent from standard trade discussions. In reality such motives are important, esp. in the presence of international conflict. Strategic considerations are likely important for technologies that are central for other sectors, esp. military and communications.
|
Question B: Restrictions on exports of semiconductors and related high-tech equipment to China will substantially improve US technological leadership.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: There is uncertainty on this. The counterpoint is that China's investments and human resources are important for US technological flourishing. Or that these policies might further trigger Chinese investment for leadership. But on balance the claim is more likely to be correct.
|
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Research on financial crises has generated theoretical insights, but unsure whether they have translated into policy. It is uncertain how much of policy during the 2008 crisis was driven by economics and how much by politics.
-see background information here -see background information here |
Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: I am not convinced that these reforms have tackled the main institutional problems related to excessive risk-taking and political connections by major banks.
|
Question A: In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, the level of Florida’s GDP in five years will be substantially lower than it otherwise would.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: Economic theory predicts that consumption and welfare should be lower, but GDP can be hired because of an investment boom to rebuild. There are several examples of this. Alternatively, of course, GDP could be lower because productive resources have been destroyed.
|
Question B: The prospect of further costly extreme weather events means that there is a substantial chance that some private property insurance markets will no longer exist in ten years in states such as Florida.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Unclear. If such events become a certainty, insurance wouldn't make sense. If they become more likely but there is no adverse selection, there will be greater demand for insurance. If events are so bad that insurance companies could go bankrupt, this can prevent private insurance
|
Question C: Without large government subsidies, mandated flood insurance requirements would substantially reduce losses from subsequent natural disasters by encouraging economic activity to migrate from the most flood-prone areas.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: There is a lot of sluggishness in adjustment and coordination failures. The hope that private insurance markets work well enough and investment and migration respond optimally is just that: I hope. It may be true or more likely not.
|
Question A: The administration’s loan relief plan will not have a substantial impact on inflation in either direction.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: I never understood why student loan forgiveness should have a major effect on inflation. Of course it creates more government debt, but the effect of that on inflation seems rather small.
|
Question B: A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be substantially higher tuition fees at some universities.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: One could write down a model in which this happens. But there is no evidence that this will happen in practice or the magnitude of any pass-through to tuition will be significant to be detected.
|
Question C: A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be measurably higher student debt burdens in anticipation of future forgiveness.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Once again this type of moral hazard could happen. And this is more likely than the pass-through to tuition. But it's still uncertain. Of course, policymakers should worry about this. For these reasons, debt forgiveness by itself is highly unlikely to have been the optimal policy
|
Question A: A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: There are of course difficulties because the oil market is global and there will be supply diversion. But better than pure sanctions.
|
Question B: The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Unclear how the supply diversion would work. The oil market is global, but this does not guarantee that a price By a large player would have zero effect.
|
Question A: The current $7,500 tax credit for purchasing electric vehicles is regressive.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: But this is misleading. Climate change is an existential emergency and its effects are larger on the poor. Need to use ALL policy options!
-see background information here |
Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Yes, but again I object to the "either or" framing. Given the emergency, we need to do both and many other things, many much more radical.
|
Question A: Laws restricting access to abortion are likely to have a negative impact on women's educational attainment, labor market participation, and earnings, particularly those in households of lower socio-economic status.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: States that ban abortion are likely to suffer significant economic losses.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Unclear whether negative effects are large enough to be detectable/significant at the state level, and would depend on migration responses.
|
Question A: Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to the earnings of current workers who become eligible to be members.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Stronger unions will likely push up wages for members. Complication is employer response/plant closures, if only a few plants unionize.
-see background information here |
Question B: Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to wages for the median household.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Unionization would affect some of low-pay workers, such as in warehouses and delivery, but also impact middle-pay workers in manufacturing.
|
Question C: Increased unionization of the American workforce would have a net positive effect on employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Overall employment effect would depend on whether unions negotiate less automation and more worker-friendly technologies, which is uncertain
-see background information here |
Question A: It would serve the US economy well to make it unlawful for companies with revenues over $1 billion to offer goods or services for sale at an “unconscionably excessive price” during an exceptional market shock.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: In principle yes, but implementing this could be difficult, and setting the right level is hard (so that supply responses are not dulled).
|
Question B: It would serve the US economy well if companies making quarterly SEC filings were obliged to include a tabulation of all price changes of goods or services sold, together with the associated cost changes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: This would be useful info for investors and regulators. Not clear whether just information provision is sufficient, but it's a first step.
|
Stablecoins that are not fully backed by either central bank reserves or government securities with minimal price volatility are inherently vulnerable to runs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
High tariffs imposed by the European Union on imports of Russian natural gas would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia while limiting disruption to supplies to Europe.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: "Effective" yes, but probably not as effective as complete bans. The exact effect on Europe is also hard to know.
|
Question A: A windfall tax on the profits of large oil companies – with the revenue rebated to households – would provide an efficient means to protect the average US household from rising energy costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: But should be motivated not as windfall but punitive tax for all of their misbehavior on climate and clawing back of fossilfuel subsidies
|
Question B: Temporary suspension of state and federal gas taxes would lead to a meaningful and immediate reduction in consumer prices at the pump.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Yes, but that does not mean that it's a good policy. We should double down on renewable energy, not subsidize fossil fuels more
|
Question A: The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be stagflationary in that it will noticeably reduce global growth and raise global inflation over the next year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: But considerable uncertainty as to how large this effect will be.
|
Question B: The economic and financial sanctions already implemented will lead to a deep recession in Russia.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Yes, but recall that they are not fully comprehensive (yet). The West should halt all gas imports and exclude all Russian banks from Swift.
|
Question C: Targeting the Russian economy through a total ban on oil and gas imports carries a high risk of recession in European economies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Of course, it will be more costly for Europe, but not clear whether it will push them into severe recession.
|
Question D: Weaponizing dollar finance is likely to lead to a significant shift away from the dollar as the dominant international currency.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: What's the alternative? Renminbi? It can be argued that China has ruined its international standing with its fullthroated support for Russia
|
Question A: High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: There is an element of "fundamental value" as cryptos capture seigniorage value but this depends on "sentiments" concerning their adoption.
-see background information here |
Question B: Given existing regulations, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the financial system, the fluctuations in their valuations pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: And a threat to climatic stability as the emissions they cause multiplied, at least in the case of bitcoin.
|
Question A: A permanent version of the 2021 expansion of the child tax credit would reduce child poverty substantially.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: The costs of increasing resources for low-income families via the expanded child tax credit would be substantially offset over the longer term by the fiscal benefits of improving life outcomes for children no longer growing up in poverty.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: I don't know what "Substantially" means. More research on how child tax credit affects human capital and subsequent earnings is needed.
|
Question C: Parental labor supply would be unlikely to fall significantly following reintroduction of the expanded child tax credit.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: Firms’ incentives to reduce costs by sourcing inputs and products abroad have caused many American industries to become more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Complex supply chains tend to create "risk externalities" domestically and globally, which are often uninternalized.
|
Question B: Private firms have inadequate incentives to make investments to reduce the risk that disruptions in the supply of imports will cause shortages and raise domestic prices.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This also, theoretically, follows from the "risk externalities". Security investments in a network benefit other firms and consumers
-see background information here |
Question C: Global supply chain disruptions are the main driver of elevated US inflation over the past year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Supply chain disruptions are a contributing factor, but probably not the "main" factor.
|
Question A: A significant factor behind today’s higher US inflation is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: The US has a big business problem, with various pernicious effects. But it is not clear whether this has been a major factor in inflation.
|
Question B: Antitrust interventions could successfully reduce US inflation over the next 12 months.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Even if excessive monopoly power was a contributing factor, antitrust couldn't act that fast.
|
Question C: Price controls as deployed in the 1970s could successfully reduce US inflation over the next 12 months.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Effective price controls, by definition, would reduce price increases, but they would most probably create other huge distortions.
|
Question A: Even without renewed Covid-19 restrictions, uncertainty about the health threat from the Omicron variant is likely to deliver a significant hit to economic activity from now through the first half of 2022.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: If world vaccine supply continues to be limited, global social welfare would rise by more if those vaccines were made widely available across Africa (with support for effective delivery) rather than accelerating booster vaccinations in rich countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Global social welfare is not well defined. Recovery in the West important for the world economy. But overall agree on humanitarian grounds
|
Question C: Imposing travel bans on countries where new Covid-19 variants are discovered will make it less likely that countries will reveal new variants to the rest of the world.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: The supply bottlenecks that are currently contributing to rising prices can be reasonably expected to abate without causing inflation over the longer term to be above the Fed’s target.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Efforts to achieve the goal of reaching net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on global economic growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Renewables are cost competitive with fossil fuels in most tasks. Plus, investment in new technology and infrastructure can boost growth.
-see background information here |
Question B: Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Transition costs will be high for China & some developing nations. Plus big oil & energy are still very powerful. Global coordination is key
|
Question C: Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Yes. But it is not sufficient. Investment in green technologies plus public campaigns, e.g., to reduce beef consumption, are also needed.
|
Question A: The introduction of natural experiments to economic analysis of the labor market and related areas has led to a more precise understanding of cause and effect.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: The ‘credibility revolution’ in empirical economics has improved our understanding of a number of public policy issues, including education, immigration and the minimum wage.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question C: In pursuit of credible research designs, researchers often seek good answers instead of good questions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: I would say "sometimes" rather than "often". Credibility revolution is fantastic for economics but we can/should not sacrifice big questions
|
Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Climate crisis is an existential risk, and it is pretty scandalous that this information is not readily available.
|
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact significantly.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: " Significantly" is difficult to know. There is a huge amount of greenwashing(esp big oil).This could obfuscate things even with disclosure.
|
Mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: But vaccines and testing are not perfect substitutes. Vaccination is absolutely necessary for reaching something resembling "herd immunity".
|
Question A: The use of non-compete clauses in US employment contracts reduces workers' mobility and wages by more than is justified by the protection of employers' intellectual property and trade secrets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: No definitive evidence on this. Seems plausible that non-competes are bad for workers and mobility. Caveat: one good paper finds 0 effects.
-see background information here |
Question B: Occupational licensing reduces mobility and wages for workers in many sectors where they could safely deliver services that consumers would prefer to those offered by licensed workers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: "Many" is difficult to judge. The evidence is far from compelling. In some occs, licensing is here rent-seeking. In others, it may be useful
|
Question A: Industry consolidation and weaker competition in the United States meaningfully constrain innovation and wage growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: My prior is yes, but we don't have enough evidence. My work doesn't find huge effects from markups to wage growth. But more is needed here.
-see background information here |
Question B: Americans pay too much for broadband, cable television, and telecommunications services, in part because of a lack of adequate competition.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: I think here we are on firmer ground and there is more evidence supporting this claim.
|
Question A: The introduction of even small trade frictions between neighboring countries can result in significant economic damage, particularly to smaller exporting firms.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: "Significant" here is very unclear. It can have a proportionately large effect on small firms, but unclear in the aggregate.
|
Question B: A national economic boom based on natural resources is likely to harm other sectors of the economy, particularly manufacturing firms.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The answer would be yes for manufacturing that does not use the resource in question as input. Otherwise, it could be positive.
|
Question A: A global minimum corporate tax rate would limit the benefits to companies of shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions without biasing where they invest.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: But the benefits from such a tax depend on the rate. Multilateral bargaining may lead to an excessively low rate, missing a huge opportunity
|
Question B: A stable international tax system in which the major advanced economies collect a minimum rate on corporate income is achievable.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Tax havens need to be regulated as well. There will be many more accounting tricks for tax evasion by MNEs. But feasible to close loopholes.
|
Question C: A global corporate tax system that is based on the location of final consumers would be more efficient than one based on the location of corporate headquarters and production facilities.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Headquarter location should be irrelevant. Uniform taxation is a good benchmark. Less clear whether based on cons. or production is better.
|
The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Inflation is undoubtedly more likely now than it has been for 20 years. But the qualifiers "serious" and "prolonged" are too strong.
|
Question A: The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 constitutes a major disincentive to work for lower-wage workers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Probably yes. Slow response of employment to demand doesn't seem to be due to other factors. But no hard evidence and still some uncertainty
-see background information here |
Question B: The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 is likely to lead to re-employment wages for currently unemployed workers that are higher by an economically meaningful amount.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Theory strongly suggests yes. But with low employment growth and the supplement set to expire, the hoped-for impact may be small or absent.
-see background information here |
Question C: Click to write the question text
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
0 |
||
|
Question A: Reliable Covid-19 vaccines will reach developing countries more quickly if the rich countries pay the pharmaceutical companies at prevailing prices to manufacture and distribute the vaccines (or to license production and support licensees), rather than waiving patent protection.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Forcing pharmaceutical companies into a free licensing agreement with developing countries could be very effective.
|
Question B: The benefits to the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of Covid vaccines at prevailing prices and providing them for free to the rest of the world exceed the costs that the rich countries would incur.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').’For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Depends on how monetary institutions evolve & I worry about end of privacy: gov't having too much information about individual transactions
|
Question B: Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: I don't see why the US or the UK cannot pursue standard monetary policy without digital currency.
|
Question C: The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Reduced transaction costs will be positive (how much? Unclear). Reduced privacy may be negative, especially combined with other surveillance
|
Question A: In an economy open to capital flows, monetary policy can only be effective with a floating exchange rate.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The market may expect the exchange rate pegged to be dropped or modified, affecting (expected) relative prices.
|
Question B: For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: Fixed exchange rates create greater certainty, but also more room for mistakes and unsustainable booms. So how they are managed is key.
|
Question C: The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: US mobility is exaggerated (see refs for small mobility effects from large shocks). Institutions and correlation of cycle is more important.
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
Question A: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Relaxing ex post monopoly after invention helps users, esp. poor users. Sometimes IPR important for market entry but not likely in this case
|
Question B: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Drug innovation respond to profits (see links). But there is plenty of profits from rich nations; those from LDCs won't to be decisive.
-see background information here |
Question C: Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Global cooperation is key for a global pandemic. If half of the world does not vaccinate, new mutants will emerge and spread in the West too
-see background information here |
Question A: Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would improve social welfare more than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Uncertain |
3 |
|
Question B: A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt, and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Uncertain |
3 |
|
Sound policy would involve increasing significantly the currently near-zero price of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Comment: The science is very clear. However, carbon tax by itself won't be enough. It should combined with meaningful direct support for clean techs.
-see background information here |
Question A: Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, would lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Both theoretically and empirically, there are reasons to expect that shortselling can lead to bubbles and other price distortions.
|
Question B: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the accuracy of stock prices.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Transparency should help, but there are various complications related to herding and complex inferences less sophisticated traders can draw.
|
Question A: Until mass vaccination is achieved, any additional government spending going directly to households should focus on keeping low-income individuals and families safe and healthy rather than on boosting current economic activity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Interpreting "safe and healthy" as enough money to prevent poverty for low income households. Also aid for state and local govs is important
|
Question B: If the goal is to boost current economic activity, targeting checks at households making less than $75,000 per year would be more cost-effective than providing checks to higher income households as well.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do.A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Evidence is that small increases in min. wage (starting from US lows) don't have large disemployment effects. Don't know what $15 will do
|
Question B: A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: $15 min wage would have very different effects in MA than in AL. But a cost of living adjustment should be legislated at the federal level
|
Question A: The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
1 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: That's my median expectation. Not because of direct effect of less trade but because of worse policies that will result from brexit politics
|
Question B: The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Same answer. Uncertain. EU policies may be worse without written, but even less clear in this case. Loss of trade with UK less important.
|
Requiring Facebook to divest WhatsApp and Instagram is likely to make society better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Big tech has an oversized and negative effect on direction of technology. Reducing their size and economic/social power is a first remedy.
-see background information here |
Question A: Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: But norms, morale and non-monetary incentives matter greatly inside organizations, and monetary incentives can sometimes erode/disrupt them.
|
Question B: Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Big caveat: that "effort" is often non-productive as well, e.g., networking, connections, bending rules, and getting credit for others' work
|
Question A: Having the government issue additional debt to pay off all current outstanding student loans would be net regressive.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Would depend on how it's done. Yes lots of student debt among those earning more than 100K a year. So risk of handout to yuppies is there.
|
Question B: Having the government issue enough additional debt to pay off student loans up to a threshold, for borrowers whose income is below a certain level, could be progressive.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Yes this would be much better. Student debt is a problem for low and middle income households, not those earning more than 100K or 150K.
|
Question C: Extension of the suspension of payments on student loans after the end of the year would support the recovery more effectively than devoting equivalent resources to general income-based transfer payments.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Unemployment benefits, aid to states and general stimulus would be more effective in the current pandemic environment.
|
Question A: Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Quality of algorithm likely play a role early on, but now it's mostly network effects---dominance breeds dominance.
|
Question B: In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: It walks, swims and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. It looks, behaves and dominates like a monopoly, it'll probably harm welfare.
|
Question C: The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This should probably involve more than light-touch regulation. We should also deal with the effects of Big Tech on direction of innovation
|
The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: One caveat to better allocative efficiency: more concentration and more monopoly power.
|
Question A: Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Removing the overly favorable tax treatment of capital would have other benefits, such as reducing incentives for excessive automation.
-see background information here |
Question B: Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: With better lockdown policies, there would have been tens of thousands of fewer deaths, but probably not much better GDP outcomes.
|
Question B: The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: The key word is SAFELY. That means COVID is under control. If schools open without that, second wave would be much worse and GDP would fall.
|
The Fed’s revised strategy to focus on employment shortfalls and a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target will make little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes over the next decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Difficult to know, but it could be a major change, making monetary policy more responsive to the labor market, not just the stock market
|
Question A: Employment growth is currently constrained more by firms' lack of interest in hiring than people’s willingness to work at prevailing wages.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Reducing supplemental levels of unemployment benefits so that no workers receive more than a 100% replacement rate would be a more effective way to balance incentives and income support than simply stopping the supplement at the end of this month.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question C: A well-designed unemployment insurance system would tie federal contributions to states on the basis of each state’s economic and public health conditions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: One might have to worry about state moral hazard, but in the current environment, this is not the first order concern.
|
Question A: Even if it is temporary, the ban on visas for skilled workers, including researchers, will weaken US leadership in STEM and R&D.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: US technology sector and R&D, as well as academia, heavily depend on attracting foreign scientists and workers.
|
Question B: Significantly fewer top foreign students will be attracted to US universities as a result of increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
6 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: Foreign students will come less if they feel unwelcome, which current policies achieve. The hassle and uncertainty factors exacerbate this.
|
Question C: If increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers are made permanent, a noticeable share of research activities by US and foreign companies will move abroad.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: Won't happen overnight, but hard to imagine how it wouldn't. Evidence from anti-Jewish policies in Third Reich universities confirm this.
|
Question A: Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Social incentives are high.Unclear how much more productive vaccine research can be done with more incentive. But FDA can be improved hugely
|
Question B: Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Unclear gains, but huge windfall for pharmaceutical companies.
|
Question C: Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should be mandatory for every US resident (except those with health exceptions, such as infants and people with compromised immunity) with the cost covered by the federal government.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Of course!
|
Question A: Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: The US has a smaller social welfare system than other rich countries in part because it is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: But unclear how much of this is because of the current effect of these variables or the historical, long-lasting compromises they induced.
|
Question A: Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Market signals are important. But in crisis, public solidarity is critical. Allocating vital equipment to the rich rich would destroy it.
|
Question B: Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: It may be better to allocate them to the needy via subsidies and government programs than price caps, which may distort signals to producers
|
Question C: Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Provided that corruption and inefficiency in choosing suppliers can be kept under control.
|
Question A: Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Seems like small businesses, which are in greatest need, haven't received much support, only large firms have. More of the same isn't good.
|
Question B: Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: But important to make sure that democratic participation in policymaking isn't completely sidelined.
|
Question A: Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Low income countries lack public health and fiscal resources to contain fallout from the epidemic and state capacity to coordinate action.
|
Question B: A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: The lasting the developed world needs is the disease to spread uncontrollably in parts of the world.
|
Question C: Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: Current institutional arrangements mean that small firms will be able to renegotiate with creditors and landlords to avoid bankruptcy during the lockdown.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Renegotiation is hard at the best of times. Casual evidence suggests it hasn't worked out well with banks in many cases so far.
|
Question B: A program that allows small businesses to skip rent and utilities during the lockdown, but repay them slowly over time afterwards, would be a net benefit to the economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Caveat: perhaps some allowance when landlord is a small business or an individual.
|
Question A: The balance of federal and local government support to address the economic impact of the crisis has thus far been tilted too much towards supporting firms rather than individuals.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Protecting the supply chain against collapse is important as well
|
Question B: Government provision of financial support to firms to keep workers on payroll for the duration of the lockdown will make the recovery faster than if the only recourse for workers to replace income were unemployment insurance.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Protecting firm-worker and firm-firm matches from being destroyed is valuable
|
Question A: With the economy in lockdown, low-income workers who are above the poverty line will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution (even accounting for all government support schemes).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Low-income self-employed will be hardest hit. Effects are generally unequalizing, but the additional government programs are progressive
|
Question B: With the economy in lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: School resources, family resources and living arrangements make online learning much harder for low-income kids
|
Question C: The mortality impact of Covid-19 is likely to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged socio-economic groups.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: Evidence from New York seems to support this.
|
Question A: Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
3 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
3 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: But containment doesn't mean complete elimination. May be optimal to stagger return to work for low-risk groups once peak-disease is gone
|
Question B: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Again this applies to pick-disease.
|
Question C: Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a successful vaccine.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Comment: Absolutely. US federal response has been incoherent & counterproductive. Hard to understand lack of investment ahead of current situation.
|
Question A: Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to improved access to healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Increased coverage is almost by definition. Probably better to allow top-up by private insurance and other means, and add more cost controls
|
Question B: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to longer waiting times for healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Not clear what meaningful is. Without private insurance, some will definitely experience longer queues. Details matter greatly.
|
Question A: Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to lower aggregate medical debt among patients.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: But it would probably lead to higher aggregate spending unless various measures are simultaneously taken. Transition would be very difficult
|
Question B: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to lower aggregate innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Question is whether most of the lost innovation is high social value. It may be some of the "me too" drugs and costly techs that go down.
|
Question C: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would improve health outcomes for the majority of the population.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question B: The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union’s customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
A ban on very short-term loans at very high annualized interest rates (aka payday lending) would make most people who use or might use them better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: There is a demand for these loans, but also miscalculations and longer-term problems for borrowers, including for their families.
|
Question A: Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: From every angle climate change risk is huge. Not a minor factor. Unclear how it will affect monetary policy, but unlikely not to impact it
|
Question B: The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Tail risks from climate can certainly impact US and global economic stability, and hence financial stability.
|
Taking into account the revenues, consumer surplus, purchasing patterns by income, and possible consumer biases, state-run lotteries (such as Powerball and scratch-off games) increase social welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: They are regressive taxes. Only excuse might be otherwise the private sector will offer them and capture the revenues. Yet not convincing
|
Question A: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: RCTs like all other tools are of course useful. Each has limitations. For RCTs challenges are scalability, GE and political economy effects.
-see background information here |
Question B: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Depends on what significant means. RCTs provide valuable knowledge but development is mostly about institutions, norms, politics, technology
|
Question A: Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Unshared gains from growth, esp when resulting in part from the political power of the rich, destroy trust in democratic institutions.
|
Question B: Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: A better social safety net would help. What is needed is not just fiscal redistribution but good jobs (high-wage employment opportunities)
-see background information here |
Question C:Governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: More spending for a more generous and rational social safety net, job creation programs and education are vital. This needs more tax revenue
|
Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: Cutting wages or polluting increase shareholder value with considerable social cost. Competition will not necessarily drive them out
|
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Some of the steps will be costly for shareholders.
|
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Moving away from extreme shareholder values needs simultaneous changes in laws & norms. Imposing topdown regulations wouldn’t be sufficient
|
A substantial source of the value of decentralized private cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, arises from their convenience for use in illegal activities.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Ability/hope to "print currency" & hope of developing technologies to be sold to banks are other sources of value (for non-bitcoin digitals)
|
Question A: In a case like the US women’s national soccer team where the revenues that they generate and their on-field performance both exceed those of the men’s team, there is no justification for lower pay.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Respect for market forces is important, but these should be distinguished from systemic discrimination against certain groups such as women
|
Question B: Fining companies above a certain size that fail to provide the same remuneration to men and women employees performing comparable roles would be an effective way of closing the gender pay gap.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Fighting against discrimination is important, but such tax policies may backfire, e.g., by discouraging the hiring of lower skill women
|
Question A: Mexico's persistent bilateral trade surplus with the United States implies that Mexico is following policies that keep the peso artificially weak against the US dollar.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
Question B: The existence of a multi-year trade deficit of Country A with Country B implies that B has successfully tilted the playing field in its favor in terms of such policies as tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the exchange rate between them.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
|
Question A: The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university accurately reflects the way that economists think about a range of economics problems.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Principles courses at most universities are out of touch with the emphasis on empirical work and incentives/market imperfections
|
Question B: The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university addresses the most pressing economic issues in the US.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: The incidence of the latest round of US import tariffs is likely to fall primarily on American households.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: There is too much uncertainty about how much damage these tariffs will do to China and global growth, so impossible to say.
|
Question B: The impact of the tariffs – and any Chinese countermeasures – on US prices and employment is likely to be felt most heavily by lower income groups and regions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Among US households, lower income ones will bear most direct costs.. But hard to know how any damage to global growth affects capital income
|
Selecting candidates for membership of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) based primarily on their political views would lead to worse monetary policy outcomes than has been the case over the last 15 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Comment: Absolutely. But we should also worry about other things, including links to the financial industry.
|
Question A: The admission of children of alumni and donors at elite private colleges and universities crowds out applicants with greater academic potential.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: The net effect of admitting children of alumni and donors (including any impact on donations and any losses of other high potential applicants) is likely to be a reduction in the contribution of colleges and universities to society.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Senator Warren’s proposed wealth tax would be much more difficult to enforce than existing federal taxes because of difficulties of valuation and the ways by which the wealthy can under-report their true wealth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Taxing capital income at the same rate as labor income would be simpler, more effective and much less difficult to implement.
|
Question B: If successfully enforced, Senator Warren’s proposed wealth tax would substantially decrease the share of wealth going to the top 0.1% of wealth-holders after 20 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
2 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: "successful enforcement" is very difficult to define and achieve. Hence uncertain.
|
Question C: A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be equally accomplished with modifications to existing federal taxes – for example, revising the estate tax and/or capital gains tax.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: What would be most successful would be a combination of relatively high estate taxes combined with taxes on capital income.
|
Question A: Forcing Amazon to divest Whole Foods now would be in the public interest.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B: Acquisitions by large tech platforms where there are risks of anti-competitive effects like those posed by Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods should not be permitted.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: I agree with the general statement, but I’m not sure whether it applies to whole foods
|
Question C: Large tech platforms, such as Amazon Marketplace and Google Search, should be designated as ‘platform utilities' and broken apart from any participant on that platform.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Generally yes. But the principle formulated here may be too broad
|
Question A: Countries that borrow in their own currency should not worry about government deficits because they can always create money to finance their debt.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
Question B: Countries that borrow in their own currency can finance as much real government spending as they want by creating money.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
Question A: When local governments compete by offering subsidies to a firm that is willing to relocate, and shopping across multiple alternative areas, the firm typically captures most of value that is created via the relocation.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Very hard to know the answer to this. I would find it hard to believe that they could capture all of the games, but they may capture a lot.
|
Question B: A federal prohibition against states and municipalities offering tax subsidies to attract specific businesses that are shopping across multiple areas to relocate would be welfare improving for the average taxpayer.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Businesses have become too powerful; such competition is one more step in that direction. But we should think about excessive agglomeration.
|
It is best for society if the management of U.S. publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these impacts feedback to impact shareholder wealth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Is it ok for companies to cheat to max shareholder value? Where do you draw the line? A broader set of objectives for companies is a must.
|
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Raising the top federal marginal tax on earned personal income to 70% (and holding the rest of the current tax code, including the top bracket definition, fixed) would raise substantially more revenue (federal and state, combined) without lowering economic activity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: It will increase substantial revenue. Impact on economic activity is somewhat uncertain, but probably not huge, except through tax avoidance
|
Rather than using second-round runoffs to settle elections in which no candidate wins a first-round majority, it would be better to use ranked-choice voting (as in the state of Maine) in which voters are encouraged to rank all of the candidates.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: No voting system is perfect. Conflicts/ambiguities cannot be avoided. But ranked voting is typically better &allows for entry by new parties
|
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.
Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: The US healthcare system is badly broken. Of course there are other factors, but US has lower life expectancy than Greece, Costa Rica, Chile
|
Question A: Considering a broad range of costs and benefits is a better tool for guiding climate policy than setting temperature limits (such as 1.5 °C , eg) based on expected links between temperature increases and the extent of environmental harm.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: There is great urgency. We need a redline, and 1.5C is as good as any, esp taking into account consequences of greater rises for some areas.
|
Question B: Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Of course, they are equivalent under ideal conditions. But a predictable price for carbon is very useful for future planning and as a signal
|
Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Fixed costs & market power in tech are a fact of life. But this need not correspond to simple IRS b/o duplication & business/idea stealing
|
If a small number of firms have a large combined market share in a properly defined market, it is strong evidence that those firms have substantial market power.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Yes of course, modern IO has warned us against this. But if it looks, walks and quacks like a duck, it is most probably a duck.
|
Question A: Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: But I remain worried about the merging monopoly power and potential control of companies like Uber. Regulation is key.
|
Question B: To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Comment: 1. Taxes are typically better than limiting the number of cars. 2. Making taxes depend on the level of congestion is key.
|
Because global supply chains are more important now, import tariffs are likely substantially more costly than they would have been 25 years ago.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Yes, for intermediate goods. For those mostly consumed, this argument would have less bite.
|
Britain's Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Overreliance on monetary policy for achieving productivity growth has huge downside.
|
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: Vigorous anti-trust policy from EU is critical for competition. Question implies domestic bias is EU-specific. US policy is no different.
|
All things considered, US society will be better off if sports betting becomes legal in more US states (beyond Nevada).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Letting people decide whether & how they gamble is good, but gambling comes with regressive taxes & manipulation of a vulnerable population
|
Over the next decade, autonomous cars will raise average welfare in the US by at least as much as smartphones have over the past decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Great potential, but it is uncertain both when they can be used in large-scale and how much they can reduce costs and increase productivity.
|
Restricting eligibility for senior government economic-policy posts by requiring a graduate degree in economics would reduce the chances for good public policy outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
6 |
|
|
NCAA Division I schools coordinate compensation for men’s basketball and football players (precluding actual pay and limiting non-monetary benefits), providing rents to member schools (which may be shared with others) at the expense of those players.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Comment: It will help some Americans and hurt others. But the overall benefits are likely to be quite limited, and losses larger.
|
Question A: By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more for its recipients' well-being than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more to raise food security and reduce hunger than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
The biggest reason for the measured slowdown in US productivity growth since the mid-2000s is that productivity increases have gone mismeasured, including new and better products and services that have been insufficiently captured by real output data.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: There is no evidence supporting this claim. Productivity has always been mismeasured. No compelling evidence that this has gotten worse.
|
Because of the many special and unique roles that the dollar plays in global commerce, US citizens are substantially better off than they otherwise would be.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Seigniorage is not trivial. The perceived safety and desirability US assets is unlikely to be unrelated to this role of the dollar.
|
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: The US has become not just less open to immigrants, but less open full stop. It's bad news for innovation & for the future of institutions.
|
Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
9 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Evidence just doesn't support it. Aging nations are growing no less than the rest. One possible reason: induced investments in automation..
-see background information here |
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: A bitcoin has a fundamental value of at least $1,000.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B: The best forecast for the value of one bitcoin in 2 years is its current price.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: I don't think it's well defined. Lots of policies and institutions affect employment. Which one is "sustainable"? Does it mean efficient?
|
Question B: Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: The concept doesn't make sense. But of course we have policy options to increase efficiency in the labor market and employment. Lots of them
|
Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: The simplification of the tax code could be beneficial, but it is more than offset by its highly regressive nature.
|
Question B: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: How could it be otherwise?
|
Question A: Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
|
Question B: Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: There might be an effect on cost of borrowing, but unlikely to be "substantial".
|
Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Comment: But an important caveat: almost all focus has been on individual behavior, and how this affects market behavior is not always clear.
|
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Recent research finds negative employment effects from industrial robots. Effects of AI and more mature robotics tech could be different.
-see background information here |
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Negative wage effects on at least some workers and productivity improvements are likely. Politics is the real constraint on redistribution
|
Question A: If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 4%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B: Raising the inflation target to 4% would make it possible for the Fed to lower rates by a greater amount in a future recession.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
|
If the US reduced its fiscal deficit, then its trade deficit would also shrink.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: By identity, current account = financial account. But this doesn't mean that causality runs from budget deficit or current account.
|
Question A: The US should increase spending now on roads, railways, bridges and airports (including new projects, maintenance or both).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: The advisability of increasing federal spending on roads, railways, bridges and airports is independent of whether the US also enacts tax cuts that substantially lower revenues.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Because labor markets across different sectors are connected, rising productivity in manufacturing leads the cost of labor-intensive services — such as education and health care — to rise.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
|
Question A: Implementing a "destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)" of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially reduce the US trade deficit within the next few years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: Replacing the sales tax with a value-added tax would be a good idea. This is less clear, but no major effect deficit.
|
Question B: Implementing a “destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)” of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially raise prices for US consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: Forecasting the effects of complex legislative actions is hard, so even competent, non-ideological and non-partisan projections could differ substantially from outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
|
Question B: Adjusting for legal restrictions on what the CBO can assume about future legislation and events, the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, expected US tax revenues will rise materially over the next four years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Basic economic theory. Cheaper factor expands output. Revenues increase not decrease.
|
Question B: If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, employment for American workers will rise materially over the next four years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: The evidence is not clear. But no support for a strong effect.
|
Providing state and local subsidies to build stadiums for professional sports teams is likely to cost the relevant taxpayers more than any local economic benefits that are generated.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: They are more likely to increase the corporate profits of listed firms than all firms, and also in the short/medium run rather than long run
|
Question B: US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: They are much more likely to be disastrous for the economy and the US political system. The economic policies we know about are shambles.
|
The Council of Economic Advisors is likely to give the US president better policy advice if the Chair and Members of the CEA have published peer-reviewed economics research.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: At least familiarity with nature of econ evidence and recent research is a must. Nonacademics often underestimate uncertainty all evidence.
|
Question A: If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Strongly Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Even if we no longer import from and offshore to China and Mexico, manufacturing jobs won't come back. If they did, they would before robots
|
Question B: If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Strongly Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Increased infrastructure spending could help construction, but the overall plan won't help workers & will likely reduce medium term growth.
|
A merger of AT&T and Time Warner would likely increase consumer surplus over the ensuing decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
4 |
|
Long run fiscal sustainability in the US will require some combination of cuts in currently promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: Yes as long as "cuts" are interpreted as slower than projected growth. Provided that economic growth continues, no need for level cuts
|
Adding new or higher import duties on products such as air conditioners, cars, and cookies — to encourage producers to make them in the US — would be a good idea.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Cookies and ACs definitely not. But there might be a case for tariffs for TEMPORARY tariffs in the face of large shocks such as China.
|
Question A: Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would lower (at least temporarily) the premium earned by current American workers with similar degrees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would raise per capita income in the US over time.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Probably lower, but too much uncertainty. The UK-EU deal likely to be similar to the status quo ante, so should not have too large an effect
|
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Two negative effects: greater uncertainty about the periphery's future, and absence of British lobbying for more open EU markets.
|
Granting every American citizen over 21-years old a universal basic income of $13,000 a year — financed by eliminating all transfer programs (including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, housing subsidies, household welfare payments, and farm and corporate subsidies) — would be a better policy than the status quo.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Current US status quo is horrible. A more efficient and generous social safety net is needed. But UBI is expensive and not generous enough
|
The ratio of the 90th to the 10th percentile of the US income distribution has been unaffected by the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Perhaps top 1% share (especially in wealth). Because of the induced stock market boom, but this is uncertain. Certainly not 90-10.
|
The “Cadillac tax” on expensive employer-provided health insurance plans will reduce costly distortions in US health care if it is allowed to take effect as scheduled in 2018.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: The four largest domestic US banks currently have around 40% of the industry’s domestic assets (an average of 10% each). In early 1998, before Glass-Steagall ended and before Citicorp merged with Travelers, they held 13.2% (an average of 3.3% each). Thirty years ago, before interstate branching was fully permitted, that combined share was around 8% (an average of 2% each).Capping US banks’ size so that no single bank could be larger than 4% of the sector's domestic assets would lower systemic risk in the US.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Political connections and systemic effects of risktaking make concentration in finance likely more pernicious than elsewhere. 4% a ?
|
Question B: The US financial system would contribute more to the average American's welfare if the size of US banks were capped so that none could be larger than 4% of the sector's domestic assets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: Against the benefits of lower systemic risk there is the loss of business to other financial centers. Global regulation would be better.
|
Question A: By providing important measures of US economic performance — including employment, consumer prices, wages, job openings, time allocation in households, and productivity — the Bureau of Labor Statistics creates social benefits that exceed its annual cost of roughly $610 million.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
6 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: Cuts in BLS spending would likely involve net social costs because potential declines in the quality of data, and thus their usefulness to researchers and decision makers, would exceed any budget savings.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Strongly Agree |
7 |
|
An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: US trade with China caused large emp. declines. But the main mitigating policy should be worker adjustment programs, not trade negotiations.
-see background information here |
Question A: There is no perfect voting system. That is, no voting system can ensure that the winner will be the person who best represents voters’ wishes, including how intensely they favor or disfavor each candidate.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: One clear defect of a winner-take-all election with 3 or more candidates, and with each voter choosing only one candidate, is that a candidate who is strongly disliked by a majority, but strongly liked by a minority, can beat a candidate who is liked by a majority and disliked by relatively few.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Large movements in monthly oil prices, either up or down, are driven primarily by speculators, as opposed to changes in the current (and planned) supply or demand for oil.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Huge changes in demand and supply over the last several years (shale gas, Iran-Iraq and global slowdown) account for the bulk of changes.
|
Question A: If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK's real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
China’s growth model, specifically the unusually high investment rate and low consumption rate, is unsustainable.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
An annual December spending surge on parties, gift-giving and personal travel delivers net social benefits.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
Question A: The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Persistent low interest create credit misallocation as in the runup to the global crisis. This has to be balanced against Keynesian factors.
|
Question B: The Fed should have raised interest rates sooner, rather than leaving them near zero for this long.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question A:Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Comparing their students’ average gains on standardized tests over the school year makes it easier to predict which teachers — all else equal — are more likely to improve their student’s long-term life outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: Value-added evaluation is far from perfect. But given that teachers matter greatly, it's surely one of many indicators one should look at.
|
Question A: The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Some estimates suggest effects from health to GDP, but the magnitudes are small. Considerable evidence exists on income to health channel
|
Question B: The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving among low-income populations.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: $1 a day is an arbitrary measure. It is informative about the bottom, but not about living standards among low middle income households.
|
Question A:Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question B: Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: A lot of uncertainty, and ACA has a lot of problems (esp. to rein in costs and tackle distortions). Probably still benefits outweigh costs.
|
Question A: If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Low levels of minimum wage do not have significant negative employment effects, but the effects likely increase for higher levels.
|
Question B: Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Greece may be better off without, the euro but political risks, especially with current government, would be great, so a no is very risky
|
Question A: Economic analysis can identify whether countries are using their exchange rates to benefit their own people at the expense of their trading partners’ welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Bank of Japan monetary policies that result in a weaker yen make Americans generally worse off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Americans benefit from cheaper Japanese goods and would not benefit from Japan in depression.
|
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
The 9% cumulative increase in real US median household income since 1980 substantially understates how much better off people in the median American household are now economically, compared with 35 years ago.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: But the same is true for the pre-1980 growth. So this number does NOT understate that growth of median income has declined after mid-1970s.
|
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
|
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: I am worried about misallocation of capital & the wrong type of risk-taking resulting from extended periods of very very low interest rates.
|
Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and/or state providing the incentives.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Such competition helps for local political economy reasons but may shift too much otherwise-public resources towards footloose companies.
|
Question A:Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
|
Question B: Considering the costs of restricting free choice, and the share of people in the US who choose not to vaccinate their children for measles, the social benefit of mandating measles vaccines for all Americans (except those with compelling medical reasons) would exceed the social cost.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
|
In 10 years, per capita purchasing power in Greece will be higher if — rather than continuing to service its debts over the next decade and complying with the budget rules currently in place — it refuses to accept a continuation of its current troika program and explicitly defaults on its debt held by the official sector.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Greece's problems are political not just macroeconomic. Unclear whether default will help. Syriza's approach so far goes in wrong direction
|
Question A: Changing federal income tax rates, or the income bases to which those rates apply, can affect federal tax revenues partly by altering people’s behavior, and thus their actual or reported incomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
|
Question B: To the extent that a given tax change might affect revenues partly by affecting national-income growth, existing research provides enough guidance to generate informative bounds on the size of any growth-driven revenue effect.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
5 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Question C: For large proposed changes in tax rates or the tax base, official revenue forecasts provided to Congress would probably be more accurate if the CBO and JCT tried to estimate fully how the proposed tax changes would affect growth-driven revenue.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question A: Most college professors who assign textbooks would not be able to guess, within 10% of the actual figure, the retail price that their students pay for new copies of those books.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Since students can resell college textbooks or rent electronic versions, the net burden on students is substantially lower than retail prices for new textbook purchases would suggest.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question C:Even though the professors who select textbooks are different form the people who pay for them, the price of new edition college textbooks reflect classic forces of supply and demand.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
The recent decline in oil prices will promote higher real GDP in the US over the next couple of years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: There will be a negative effect on the now sizable US energy sector, but the positive impact on the rest of the economy should dominate.
|
A US city hosting a big convention will enjoy a higher boost to incremental spending — holding the number of visitors and their average incomes fixed — if those visitors are auto dealers rather than economists.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
A typical country can increase its citizens’ welfare by enacting policies that would increase its trade surplus (or decrease its trade deficit).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Consumption and investment smoothing is good. But often CA deficits support consumption booms that are unsustainable.
|
Question A: Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: Significantly unclear. Increase likely, but given limited SR opportunities, much might go to M&A or purchases/inflation of existing assets.
|
Question B: Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This would also divert investment abroad in a distortionary fashion. Lower corporate taxes would be more powerful.
|
Question A: By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: We underestimate the costs of trade through employment (e.g. with low-wage countries in manufacturing), net benefits still likely to be +.
|
Question A: Amazon has monopsony power in the market for books that is significantly reducing the supply of books.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B:Amazon has sufficient monopsony power that regulatory intervention is likely to make consumers of books better off, taking into account implementation costs and the effect of intervention on incentives.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
The most powerful force pushing towards greater wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
9 |
Disagree |
6 |
Comment: Theoretically and empirically the case that r-g is a major determinant of inequality or even top inequality is weak.
-see background information here |
Letting car services such as Uber or Lyft compete with taxi firms on equal footing regarding genuine safety and insurance requirements, but without restrictions on prices or routes, raises consumer welfare.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Although there are many issues for Scotland’s voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Past evidence suggests that there will be waste and corruption (a lot of corruption!). But this does not imply that average NPV is negative.
|
Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Two caveats. How significant this effect will be is uncertain. It might have negative side effects by discouraging switch to cleaner energy.
|
Question A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Legislation introduced in Congress would require the Federal Reserve to "submit to the appropriate congressional committees…a Directive Policy Rule", which shall "describe the strategy or rule of the Federal Open Market Committee for the systematic quantitative adjustment of the Policy Instrument Target to respond to a change in the Intermediate Policy Inputs." Should the Fed deviate from the rule, the Fed Chair would have to "testify before the appropriate congressional committees as to why the [rule]…is not in compliance." Enacting this provision would improve monetary policy outcomes in the U.S.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: Given the increasingly important and discretionary role the Fed plays, supervision is essential. Congress may not be the right body to do it
|
Question A: All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities — which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as “patent trolls" — promote innovation in the U.S.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
1 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question B: Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
There is a social value to having institutions that issue liquid liabilities that are backed by illiquid assets.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: The only caveat is that if other employees have a taste for discrimination, they may take costly actions against the hiring of minorities.
|
Question B: Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Considering both distributional effects and changes in efficiency, it is a good idea to let companies that send video or other content to consumers pay more to Internet service providers for the right to send that traffic using faster or higher quality service.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
The recent oversubscribed debt issues of Greece and Portugal suggest that sovereign default by any euro area country is unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
If the NCAA let colleges pay athletes with more than scholarships (which currently may cover tuition, books, room and board), then top colleges in men’s basketball and football would pay most athletes substantial sums beyond full scholarships.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This is true for limited sanctions being imposed on Russia. Much more comprehensive sanctions as in South Africa or Iran would be effective.
|
Question A: Advancing automation has not historically reduced employment in the United States.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Information technology and automation are a central reason why median wages have been stagnant in the US over the past decade, despite rising productivity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
10 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: The right answer is "uncertain". But "disagree" emphasizes that the view that we are running out of ideas, which has little basis.
|
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Using surge pricing to allocate transportation services — such as Uber does with its cars — raises consumer welfare through various potential channels, such as increasing the supply of those services, allocating them to people who desire them the most, and reducing search and queuing costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Giving specific presents as holiday gifts is inefficient, because recipients could satisfy their preferences much better with cash.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
1 |
Disagree |
7 |
|
Question A: The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question B: Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by choosing a well-diversified, low-cost index fund than by picking a few stocks.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
|
Question A: Enactment of the Senate bill to subject the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and discount window decisions to an audit by the Comptroller General of the U.S. would improve the Fed's legitimacy without hurting its decision making.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
|
Question B: The Fed should not reduce its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasurys until there is clearer evidence of strong and sustained employment growth.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Allowing Internet service providers to charge content companies for access to the ISPs' customers would provide net benefits to consumers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question A: If the United States fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on government debt securities, even as an unintended consequence of political brinksmanship, US families and businesses are likely to suffer severe economic harm.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: With or without a default, current uncertainty over future taxing and spending policies of the US government is likely to depress private investment and hiring by enough to reduce GDP growth by at least a quarter of a percentage point over the next 12 months.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Experience over the past 30 years shows that for the typical emerging market nation facing rapid capital outflows, spending foreign currency reserves to defend its currency is a better policy for its citizens than not doing so.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Disagree |
4 |
|
If regulators had not approved mergers in the past decade between major networked airlines, travelers would be better off today.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Conventional economic reasoning suggests that it would be a good policy to enact the recent Senate bill that would let undergraduate students borrow through the government Stafford program at interest rates equivalent to the primary credit rates offered to banks through the Federal Reserve's discount window.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
An effective way to increase savings rates of employees whose firms have defined contribution plans is to combine automatic enrollment in those plans and periodic automatic increases in their contributions (with the ability to opt out of either).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
1 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption in ways that reduce the saving rate are likely to lower long-run living standards.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Slavery in the United States was eradicated because of social and political events, not because it was an unprofitable institution for slaveholders.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
10 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Restricting US exports of liquefied natural gas would have adverse effects on the US economy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Average return is likely to be because of underspending in many activities, but many will be adopted because of politics and have <0 returns
|
Reducing the income-tax deductibility of charitable gifts is a less distortionary way to raise new revenue than raising the same amount of revenue through a proportional increase in all marginal tax rates.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
A bitcoin's value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Countries that let their debt loads get high risk losing control of their own fiscal sustainability, through an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher government bond rates, which in turn make debt problems more severe.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Refusing to liberalize trade unless partner countries adopt new labor or environmental rules is a bad policy, because even if the new standards would reduce distortions on some dimensions, such a policy involves threatening to maintain large distortions in the form of restricted trade.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Not clear that increasing carbon-intensive imports from, say, China would be a step closer to a less distorted allocation.
|
Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
Question A:
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B:The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of highly educated foreign workers were legally allowed to immigrate to the US each year.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
|
The persistent deflation in Japan since 1997 could have been avoided had the Bank of Japan followed different monetary policies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
1 |
Agree |
7 |
|
The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing small business growth than growth of economic output overall.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
The annual indexing of Social Security benefits to increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (the CPI-W) leads to higher benefits than would be required to compensate recipients for genuine cost-of-living increases.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
10 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
The Brookings Institution recently described a US carbon tax of $20 per ton, increasing at 4% per year, which would raise an estimated $150 billion per year in federal revenues over the next decade. Given the negative externalities created by carbon dioxide emissions, a federal carbon tax at this rate would involve fewer harmful net distortions to the US economy than a tax increase that generated the same revenue by raising marginal tax rates on labor income across the board.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Because federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid will continue to grow under current policy beyond the 10-year window of most political budget debates, it is easy for a politician to devise a budget plan that would reduce federal deficits over the next decade without really making the U.S. fiscally sustainable.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Comparing two plans that would reduce federal budget deficits by identical amounts in each of the next 10 years, one that did so partly by reducing significantly the long-term growth rate of Medicare and Medicaid spending would do more to make the U.S. budget fiscally sustainable than one that did not lower the growth of these spending programs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Alternative could be as sound if it reduced growth rate of Social Security (e.g. by means testing) and reduced inefficient tax deductions.
|
Question A: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including the incentives of banks to ensure their own liquidity and solvency in the future — the benefits of bailing out U.S. banks in 2008 will end up exceeding the costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B: Because GM and Chrysler were bailed out in 2008-09, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would it have been if Congress and the executive branch had not intervened.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question C: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including effects on corporate managers' incentives and on creditors' expectations of how their claims will be treated in future bankruptcies — the benefits of bailing out GM and Chrysler will end up exceeding the costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Question A: The U.S government should make further efforts to shrink the size of the country's largest banks — such as by capping the size of their liabilities or penalizing large banks more heavily through taxes or other means — because the existing regulations do not require the biggest banks to internalize enough of the "too-big-to-fail" risks that they pose.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question B:The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing manufacturing employment than employment in other sectors.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
7 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question B: Because firms and inventors do not capture the full returns from research and development, the government would increase the average well-being of Americans (and potentially of others too) by favoring R&D using the tax code.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: Consider one of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that President Obama enacted in the Affordable Care Act — reducing Medicare-related payments to private insurers and altering the payment system for doctors and hospitals — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because over time the supply of doctors, hospitals and insurers willing to offer them health services may decline in response to restrained payments.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: There is fat and monopoly markups in the system to be cut. The problem with the ACA is the absence of across the board credible cost cutting
|
Question B: Consider the other of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that Governor Romney advocates — giving future seniors a fixed payment for premiums and letting private insurers compete with Medicare — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because competition may not be powerful to enough to offer future seniors the same quality of care that is currently promised without supplementing their premium support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: the problem isn't lack of power from competition but other parts of the plan which do not make sense and may rely on cutting redistribution
|
Claims by incumbent presidents and challengers about how many private-sector jobs can be created in a four-year period by sector-level or other targeted policies should be viewed as rough guesses, because overall macroeconomic conditions drive aggregate employment in ways that dominate any net effects of polices that focus on specific industries or households.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: One drawback of taxing capital income at a lower rate than labor income is that it gives people incentives to relabel income that policymakers find hard to categorize as "capital" rather than labor".
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: Despite relabeling concerns, taxing capital income at a permanently lower rate than labor income would result in higher average long-term prosperity, relative to an alternative that generated the same amount of tax revenue by permanently taxing capital and labor income at equal rates instead.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Two things are ott confused. Continuously taxing savings is hugely inefficient. Taxing income at source even if it is capital income isn't.
|
Question C: Although they do not always agree about the precise likely effects of different tax policies, another reason why economists often give disparate advice on tax policy is because they hold differing views about choices between raising average prosperity and redistributing income.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases real GDP growth over the next two years, the increase will be inconsequential.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases annual consumer price inflation over the next five years, the increase will be inconsequential.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C:Even if inflationary pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in if it chooses to do so.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: Ethanol content requirements and protectionism against imported ethanol (which includes fuel from sugarcane) raise food prices without significantly reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: A direct disincentive to emit carbon-dioxide, for example through a carbon tax or an emissions permit market, is more efficient than requiring the use of corn-based ethanol fuels.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: Even if all the official-sector funding that Greece received from 2010 through August 2012 is written off, propping up Greece to buy time for the rest of Europe to prepare for Greek default has been better for citizens of the Eurozone outside of Greece than a policy that would have cut off funding sooner.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: A substantial sovereign-debt default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is a necessary condition for the euro area as a whole to grow at its pre-crisis trend rate over the next three years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Disagree |
5 |
|
Question C: Unless there is a substantial default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain on their sovereign debt and commercial bank debt, plus credible reforms to prevent excessive borrowing in the future, the euro area is headed for a costly financial meltdown and a prolonged recession.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Uncertain |
4 |
|
The current trade barriers in the U.S. sugar industry raise the profits of sugar producers and make the typical U.S. consumer pay more for sugar and goods that use sugar as an input.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question A: Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: The way in which money market funds normally trade – at one dollar per share, even though the per-share value of the assets backing them varies over time – made them vulnerable to a run in 2008 before they received taxpayer guarantees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: Taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were instead required to trade at its floating net asset value.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
7 |
|
Question C: In the absence of floating net asset values, taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were required to set aside capital to protect against losses while holding back a portion of shareholders' cash for a time when they seek to withdraw all of their money.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Taxes or bans on large bottles of soft drinks containing sugar are not likely to have a significant effect on obesity rates because people will substitute towards consuming excessive calories in other ways.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Subjecting online sales from out-of-state vendors to the same retail sales taxes imposed on in-state sales would raise more tax revenue in the states making this change while reducing the pro-online bias of current policy.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Consumers would not necessarily be better off if cable and satellite TV firms were required to offer a la carte pricing for individual channels, because the networks' programming charges and the satellite-and-cable fees could adjust in response to this rule.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
5 |
|
|
Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
8 |
|
Question A:Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
6 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question B: If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question C: The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Question A: A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
6 |
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
|
Question A: Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: But with lots of caveats. There are many losers; transaction costs of reallocation and technology transfer have significant costs.
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Question B: Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
|
An important reason why private college and university tuition has risen faster than the CPI during the past few decades is because competition for faculty members — whose potential earnings in other sectors have steadily improved — has driven up their pay faster than their productivity.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This is not the only reason but one factor. Universities are also spending more on other inputs, including more on administration.
|
If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
7 |
|
|
New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
5 |
|
|
Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
6 |
|
|
Question A: Reducing the minimum retirement age in France from 62 back to age 60, permanently, would reduce long-term French economic growth and substantially raise French debt relative to GDP over time.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
7 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B: France’s overall employment is higher today because of the 35 hour work week than it would be without a limit on weekly hours.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
7 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Connecticut should pass its Senate Bill 60, which states that during a “severe weather event emergency, no person within the chain of distribution of consumer goods and services shall sell or offer to sell consumer goods or services for a price that is unconscionably excessive.”
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Disagree |
6 |
|
|
The former head of the Transportation Security Administration is correct in arguing that randomizing airport “security procedures encountered by passengers (additional upper-torso pat-downs, a thorough bag search, a swab test of carry-ons, etc.), while not subjecting everyone to the full gamut" would make it "much harder for terrorists to learn how to evade security procedures."
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Laws that limit the resale of tickets for entertainment and sports events make potential audience members for those events worse off on average.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Third degree price discrimination can make consumers on average better off or worse off.
|
Prior to the crisis, the benefits from the funding advantage that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had by virtue of perceived government support mostly went to their shareholders, rather than into substantially lower interest rates on residential mortgages.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Difficult to know how gains from subsidies were distributed between shareholders and mortgage-holders pre-crisis given implicit risks.
|
Question A: If public school students had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools), most would be better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: Too much uncertainty about equilibrium effects, though it is clear that public schools are failing and alternatives are necessary.
|
Question B: The main drawback to allowing all public school students to take the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools) would be that some students would not make an active choice and would be left with much worse peers and a weaker school.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
|
Question A: The average size of the 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) would be substantially smaller if they did not have implicit government support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Uncertain |
5 |
|
Question B: The 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) are big primarily because of economies of scale and scope, rather than because of implicit government support.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
6 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: They are larger than they should be because of bailout guarantees and subsidies to leverage. There may also be economies of scale and scope.
|
Changes in U.S. gasoline prices over the past 10 years have predominantly been due to market factors rather than U.S. federal economic or energy policies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Did Not Answer | Agree |
8 |
|
|
Question A: Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
8 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: Economists often understate short-term employment costs, which are significant and unequally distributed, but probably less than benefits.
|
Question B: On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
1 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Because the U.S. Treasury bailed out and backstopped banks (by injecting equity into them in late 2008, and later committing to provide public capital to any banks that failed the stress tests and could not raise private capital), the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without these measures.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Loosening current licensing restrictions on the range of services that nurses, physician assistants, dental hygienists and pharmacists are permitted to perform would help patients on balance, because the additional safety risks would be small compared to the decreased costs in waiting time and fees.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
2 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: I think this would depend on the type of mispricing. E.g., heterogeneous priors with shortselling can lead to wide swings in prices.
|
Question A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
3 |
Agree |
7 |
|
Question B:Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
3 |
Uncertain |
6 |
|
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
4 |
Disagree |
6 |
|
Question A:
The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
4 |
Comment: CEOs received substantial rents, partly because pay is set by negotiation and with weak oversight. But bad CEO can do huge damage to a firm.
|
Question B:Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: Yes, but not sufficient given that disperse shareholders may not have sufficient incentives to monitor performance.
|
One of the leading reasons for rising U.S. income inequality over the past three decades is that technological change has affected workers with some skill sets differently than others.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
9 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: But, importantly, it is not the only factor. The other three are: slower growth in the supply of skills; institutional changes; and trade.
|
Question A:If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Disagree |
3 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Comment: A gold standard would have avoided the policy mistakes of the 2000s, but still likely that discretionary policy is useful during recessions
|
Question B: There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
3 |
Strongly Agree |
9 |
Comment: Gold is intrinsically close to useless, so its price is determined as a "bubble".
|
In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
7 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
A tax on the carbon content of fuels would be a less expensive way to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions than would a collection of policies such as “corporate average fuel economy” requirements for automobiles.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
8 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question A: All else equal, making drugs illegal raises street prices for those drugs because suppliers require extra compensation for the risk of incarceration and other punishments.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: Only caveat (more drugs today increase addiction, demand and prices in the future) seems insufficient to reverse basic supply-demand result.
|
Question B: The Netherlands restrictions on “soft drugs” combined with a moderate tax aimed at deterring their consumption would have lower social costs than continuing to prohibit use of those drugs as in the US. (Click here for a summary of the Netherlands restrictions.)
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
5 |
Comment: The US war on drugs appears to be a total and very costly failure, so alternatives have to be tried and this one seems to have worked well.
|
Question A:Credible assumptions for inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either the Debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian interest rates on 10-year government debt remained at the November 30 level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond market.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
Comment: The question presumes that there is no possibility of debt restructuring that could keep debt to GDP stable and grant access to bond markets
|
Question B:Absent outside help to deal with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spending-and-tax plan Italy can announce that would be credible enough to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its Debt-to-GDP ratio.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Uncertain |
5 |
Comment: This question again rules out the possibility of debt restructuring. Also not clear that effective ECB commitments must be unlimited.
|
There are no consequential distortions created by the tax preference that favors obtaining health insurance through employers.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
7 |
Strongly Disagree |
8 |
Comment: Linking health insurance to (current) employment distorts both labor market choices and health care decisions.
|
Federal mandates that government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional circumstances, such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
6 |
Disagree |
5 |
Comment: 4 years ago I would have disagreed. Recent evidence (Autor Dorn Hanson) suggests yes.Caveat: costs from higher prices & other inefficiencies
-see background information here |
Question A: Eliminating tax deductions for non-investment personal interest expenses (e.g., on mortgages), with reductions in personal tax rates that are both budget neutral and keep the burden of taxes by income group the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by individuals.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: There is no reasonable Pigovian justification for mortgage deductions, which are not only distortionary but also generally regressive.
|
Question B: Reducing the deductibility of interest expenses for non-financial businesses to equalize the overall tax cost of debt and equity financing, while using the extra revenue to reduce personal and corporate tax rates in a budget neutral fashion that also keeps the burden of taxes the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by firms.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
7 |
Comment: Caveat: the appropriate corporate tax reduction is important here, since many firms do not have access to equity financing.
|
Question A: Unless they have inside information, very few investors, if any, can consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
4 |
Strongly Agree |
8 |
|
Question B: Plausible expectations of future dividends, discounted using a plausible risk-adjusted interest rate, explain well the level of stock prices for recently listed internet businesses in 1999.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
1 |
Disagree |
7 |
|
The Chinese government pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Agree |
5 |
Agree |
6 |
|
Public school students would receive a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools).
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
5 |
Uncertain |
6 |
Comment: Vouchers likely to improve things in short run given the awful state of US public schools. But we know little about their long run effects.
|
Question A: All else equal, permanently raising the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income by 1 percentage point for those in the top (i.e., currently 35%) tax bracket would increase federal tax revenue over the next 10 years.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Agree |
6 |
Agree |
8 |
Comment: Disincentive effects on labor supply and entrepreneurship, and tax avoidance are likely, but not large enough to reduce revenues.
|
Question B:The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Strongly Disagree |
6 |
Disagree |
7 |
Comment: More comprehensive increases in taxes and reduction in tax expenditures, or preferably systematic means testing of SS-Medicare are necessary
|
All else equal, the Fed's new plan to increase the maturity of its Treasury holdings will boost expected real GDP growth for calendar year 2012 by at least one percentage point.
Vote | Confidence | Median Survey Vote | Median Survey Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Uncertain |
4 |
Disagree |
4 |
Comment: Expansionary policy, aimed at reducing long-term interest rates. Should be successful but no idea about whether it gets 1% growth for 2012.
|