Daron Acemoglu image

Daron Acemoglu

283 Votes

MIT

  • Cambridge, MA

About

  • MIT Institute Professor
  • Nobel Prize, Economics (2024)
  • Fordham Trailblazer Award (2020)
  • Editor-in-chief of Econometrica (2011-2015)

Voting History

US

Institutions and Prosperity

Question A: The institutions of society - such as constitutions, laws, judiciaries, and property rights - substantially shape economic decisions, policies, and outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: I am obviously not impartial. Summary of my view: constitutions, laws and institutional practices provide the framework within which other decisions are made. The framework matters greatly, but there is also quite a bit of freedom to make different choices within it.
Question B: On average and over the long term, democracies deliver substantially better economic growth than other forms of government.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: There is controversy on this, but much of it is due to comparing between countries with different democracy scores, which is not easy to do. When countries democratize (for endogenous or exogenous reasons), within seven or eight years, they start growing significantly faster.
-see background information here
Question C: Countries where democracy and the rule of law are weakened are likely to experience measurable damage to their economic performance.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: I agree with this in the medium-to-long-run. Weakening of democracy can go hand-in-hand with special deals for some firms that then invest more and prop up growth in the short run.. Some of the damages, e.g., from weaker legal system or uncertainty, are only realized over time.
US

Sovereign Wealth Funds

Question A: The Democrats and Republicans have floated the idea of a US sovereign wealth fund. For background, see here and here.

Establishing a domestic sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors would bring substantial benefits to the US economy over a ten-year horizon.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question B: The typical advanced economy could substantially boost growth by establishing a sovereign wealth fund to invest in infrastructure, emerging technologies, and/or strategic sectors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Question C: For a typical advanced economy, establishing a sovereign wealth fund would be substantially better for citizens relative to paying down the debt as a use for excess revenue.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
US

National Rent Caps

Question A: Capping annual rent increases by corporate landlords at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would make middle-income Americans substantially better off over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
6
Comment: I believe the distribution of impact on middle income, Americans would be positive, but the substantial part is uncertain.
Question B: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments for rent over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Question C: Capping annual rent increases at 5%, as proposed by President Biden, would substantially reduce US income inequality over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
US

Tax Cuts Extension

Question A: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would substantially increase federal deficits and the federal debt over the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: All else equal, making permanent the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025 would measurably increase the rate of US economic growth over the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Zero taxes on capital, combined with relatively high taxes on labor are very problematic, both because of their distributional implications and also because they distort technology choice, encouraging excessive automation.
-see background information here
Question C: In the US, given Congressional budget scoring rules, temporary tax cuts generate sufficient pressure for extension as to be effectively permanent.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: The reason why capital taxation is so low at the moment seems to be that several temporary generous depreciation allowance statutes and other giveaways to investors then became permanent.
Question A: The lower willingness of private firms to go public, combined with the increased number of publicly traded firms being taken private over the last 25 years, is measurably net negative for economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Public firms have better access to credit and their actions may be more transparent, but it is not clear whether having fewer public firms has become a major factor in economic growth. Public firms may be subject to more short-termist pressure as well.
Question B: All else equal, reducing regulatory barriers (including reporting requirements such as Sarbanes Oxley 404) to public listing would substantially increase the share of publicly traded firms in the economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Agree
4
Comment: This sounds reasonable but I do not know the specific evidence supporting or contradicting it.
Question C: The lack of transparency about unlisted private firms' financial performance substantially hinders the efficiency of the allocation of capital.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
US

Regulating AI

Question A: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to lead to substantially lower prices of AI products and services for businesses and consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Although there is some uncertainty and government intervention could slow down innovation & harm the introduction of new services, the AI field right now is so oligopolistic that well-designed antitrust should be able to increase competition and reduce prices.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question B: Antitrust investigations of the dominant firms in artificial intelligence are likely to promote greater competition and innovation in AI.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Once again there is some uncertainty, because successful antitrust would reduce the huge investments that OpenAI is planning. But overall, a more competitive field is likely to increase innovation and the quality of innovation. It may even enable a better direction of technology.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question C: Potential harms from artificial intelligence are better assessed by market deployment rather than seeking to slow the pace of AI research and implementation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: It is not either or. We need both more competition, and also much better regulation. Importantly, we need a redirection of AI in a more socially beneficial direction. To achieve this we may need to slow down the huge investments in data collection and moral training by incumbents
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question A: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher employment in the US automotive industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Question B: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would lead to measurably higher prices of EVs in the US.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question C: The proposed US tariffs on Chinese EVs would measurably slow the adoption of green technology by consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
5
US

Drug Policy

Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would lead to measurably higher social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: Legalizing marijuana in places where it's illegal, without interfering with state policies that have already legalized it would be an improvement. There is no evidence that legalization has led to big negative effects and further legalization would reduce criminal involvement
US

Tariffs

Question A: Tripling existing import taxes on Chinese steel and aluminum products would lead to measurably higher employment in the US steel industry over the next five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: It would first depend on whether these imports are shifted to other countries. Second, if it encourages domestic production, it would depend on how automated the new production facilities would be. In sum, there would be some positive effect, but difficult to know how large.
Question B: Tripling the tariffs would lead to measurably higher steel and aluminum prices for American producers and measurably higher finished-good prices for American consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: Again, the medium-term price effects would depend on whether imports are shifted to other countries and if there is production domestically, how efficient these new facilities would be.
Question C: The gains for the American economy from tripling the tariffs would measurably outweigh the losses.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Universities that abandon temporary pandemic test-optional policies and return to requiring standardized test scores for admissions will create measurably enhanced opportunities for potentially high-achieving students from low-income backgrounds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
US

Supermarket Merger

Question A: The FTC is opposed to Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons. Critics argue that with sufficient divestitures, the deal would be consistent with past FTC policies.

Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would lead to substantially higher grocery prices and/or lower product quality/services for customers of the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
4
Question B: Kroger’s proposed acquisition of Albertsons would have a substantially negative effect on workers at the two companies in locations where both are present.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
US

Prescription Drugs

Question A: Allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US retirees.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Question B: Allowing imports of medicines from Canada will lead to a substantial reduction in the costs of prescription drugs for US consumers without compromising safety.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Question A: A tolling program for New York City is out for public consultation with proposed charges on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan summarized here: https://new.mta.info/document/129191

The proposed tolls on vehicles entering the central business district of Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial reduction in traffic congestion in the targeted area.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Question B: The proposed tolls on vehicles entering Manhattan are likely to lead to a substantial increase in traffic congestion just outside the central business district, above 60th Street, in the outer boroughs and New Jersey.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
US

Economic Sanctions and Aid

Question A: The economic and financial sanctions against Russia are substantially limiting its ability to wage war on Ukraine.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: "Substantially" is not immediate, but the sanctions have certainly made building, maintaining and manning the Russian war machine more difficult.
Question B: In the absence of continuing flows of Western economic aid, Ukraine's wartime economy will be substantially compromised.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Strongly Agree
7
US

US Steel

Question A: Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would lead to substantially less employment in the US steel industry than in the absence of such a deal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Question B: Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel would cause no measurable damage to the American economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
5
US

Argentina

Question A: The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
5
Question A: US GDP is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Comment: "Substantially" is unlikely. More spending probably increased GDP if the counterfactual is nothing. But other ways of spending the same some would have increased GDP more. Subsidizing capital often comes at the expense of labor, though there are different findings on this.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question B: Corporate capital stock is substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than it would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Disagree
5
Comment: Even if the effects on GDP are uncertain and does on employment could be negative, capital income tax cuts tend to increase investment.
-see background information here
Question C: Real median wages are substantially higher now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Disagree
5
Comment: Subsidizing equipment and digital capital also encourages automation, which does not necessarily increase wages and employment. Once again, there are different results on this in the literature, but my assessment would not be a positive effect.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question D: Federal tax revenues are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Question E: Charitable donations are substantially lower now as a result of the passage of the TCJA than they would have been had the TCJA not been passed, and all else was equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
3
US

Land Value Tax

Shifting the burden of municipal property taxes towards land and away from improvements such as buildings - as proposed in the Detroit land value tax plan - will enhance the incentives for owners to develop their land and thereby give a substantial boost to local economic growth over a ten-year horizon.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
4
Comment: More generally, Georgist ideas may be worth revisiting.
US

Women and the Labor Market

Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
7
Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Comment: Evidence by Kleven and co. on effects of childrearing on women's careers is solid. Educational gaps have closed. But there are major occupational gaps that account for significant gender wage differences. How much of this is discrimination or socially determined is still unknown.
Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: There is solid evidence that flexibility and options to have regular hours for mothers helps with women's careers (see link). But I'm not aware of conclusive evidence on the effects of "disproportionate rewards for long work hours".
-see background information here
US

Fiscal Rules

Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: I think they are useful tools, but I chose "uncertain" because of the word "essential", which suggests that they are both critical and immutable. Having fiscal rules that are unbreakable may be too costly during exceptional periods, such as the pandemic or a depression.
Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: Difficult to know for sure, but it seems a plausible reading of the evidence.
Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
4
Comment: In a number of cases, greater fiscal flexibility may have been useful. Difficult to know.
Question A: Non-bank financial intermediaries pose a substantial threat to financial stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Question B: Regulating the leverage and liquidity of non-bank financial intermediaries would substantially improve financial stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: It is strange and inefficient to have a series of regulations for banks, but so little for non-bank financial intermediaries. This asymmetry would likely become more consequential with decentralized finance and digital assets.
Question C: Given current regulations, non-bank financial intermediaries should not have access to central bank support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: The moral hazard problem is clear in this case.
US

Junk Fees

Question A: An $8 cap on late fees for credit cards, as proposed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: Requiring that all credit card fees and interest rates be transparent, prominently displayed, and easily searchable online would lead to a substantial reduction in overall costs for consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: It is uncertain whether most customers would search, process and act on this type of information, given busy schedules, other transaction costs and sometimes low financial literacy.
Question C: Consumers would be measurably better off if efforts to reduce the impact of so-called ‘junk fees’ across the economy concentrated on making fees more transparent than on capping specific types of fees.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: I am not convinced that transparency would work by itself. Capping fees could backfire, especially if these caps are excessively tight. But on balance, regulation may be better for ticketing consumers than just transparency. Still there is much uncertainty.
Question A: When evaluating the consequences of any shifts in economic policy regimes, it is essential to consider potential changes in the behavior of economic agents due to revised expectations.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: My reading of the evidence is that major policy changes do shift expectations in some way. The exact manner may be complicated, but expect ational changes are important.
Question B: The empirical evidence on how monetary policy affects the economy in the short run is most consistent with the assumption that economic agents form rational expectations.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Rational expectations is a very useful benchmark. But there seems to be much heterogeneity and some systematic biases. E.g. it took a long while for inflationary expectations to adjust in Turkey after central bank lost independence and very low interest rate policy got cemented.
Question C: Economic research has established that the welfare consequences of differences in countries’ growth and level of development are substantially higher than the welfare costs of business cycles.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: The only caveat is really dysfunctional monetary policy and hyperinflation leading to conflict and loss of state capacity, then impacting medium-term growth.
US

TikTok

Question A: If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably negative impact on US innovation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
3
Comment: We should always be careful in blocking new technologies, hence my answer is "uncertain". But it is not clear what major (positive) innovation spillovers from TikTok are, and social media will have to be regulated. Regulations that also apply to US platforms would be better.
-see background information here
Question B: If enacted and technologically effective, a national ban on the use of TikTok would have a measurably positive impact on the profits of the big US tech companies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
4
Comment: Yes, unless they are also regulated and this is one reason why regulations that apply to all social media companies are better than just blocking TikTok.
Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Though breakthroughs in large language models are impressive and appear to be capable of increasing human productivity, there is no evidence that they can be effectively employed in production. Past applications have often disappointed. Current direction of AI is also distorted.
-see background information here

-see background information here

-see background information here

Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
4
Comment: There is some uncertainty here as well. But in its current direction AI is an "inappropriate technology" for many emerging economies and may slow down their growth, as it seeks to substitutes capital and programming skills for middle and low skills.
US

Dollar Dominance

Question A: Use of the renminbi in world trade, as a reserve currency, and/or for foreign bond denomination is likely to increase substantially relative to the dollar over the next ten years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
4
Comment: I would guess that this would depend on Chinese institutions. So long as they remain highly authoritarian and blur the line between the state and the Communist Party, the renminbi will remain less attractive as an international currency than the dollar.
Question B: Ceteris paribus, a shift to a more multi-polar international monetary system would have substantial negative implications for the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Uncertain
4
US

Banking Crisis

Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Comment: Deposit insurance is not enough for uninsured depositors. But there are many other tools available within the current regulatory system. The details matter.
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: If problem is a run on other banks, then their uninsured depositors should have been insured (e.g., SVB depositors lose money but for the next year, depositors of other banks are fully insured). Instead, authorities bailed out the millionaire depositors of SVB. No logic to this
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: How could it be otherwise?
US

Medicare Funding

Question A: If it is implemented, the proposed increase in the tax rate on earned and business income above $400,000 in the Biden budget, along with other proposed changes to Medicare, would extend the solvency of the Medicare program for the next 25 years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
4
Question B: If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in drug prices for beneficiaries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
4
Question C: If it is implemented, the proposed reform of Medicare drug negotiations in the Biden budget is likely to lead to a substantial reduction in the development of beneficial new drugs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
4
Comment: Composition of pharma innovation is highly responsive to profits. This may lead to excessive investment in expensive drugs for end-of-life care. Lower profit margins across the board may not have huge effects on overall R&D, and may even lead to better composition of R&D.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question A: Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of user-generated content available on those platforms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Probably yes, but the effect may not be substantial and there might be a process of bad content being replaced by higher-quality content.
Question B: Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially damage those platforms’ advertising businesses.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
4
Comment: Leading platforms' business model is currently based on maximizing user engagement, often via emotional triggers and outrage. Removing some of the questionable user content would reduce this type of engagement and digital advertising revenue.
-see background information here
Question C: Imposing stronger legal liability on online platforms for content posted by users would substantially reduce the amount of misinformation and disinformation present on those platforms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: These platforms are playing the roles previously performed by newspapers, but without editorial responsibility. Legal liability would push them towards responsible publishing, especially toward less algorithmic boosting of the most questionable content to maximize user engagement
US

The Invisible Hand

Question A: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been foundational to the development of modern economic theory.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
8
Question B: Adam Smith’s metaphor of the invisible hand has been commonly misinterpreted as advocacy for pure laissez-faire capitalism.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: The invisible hand and its formalization, first welfare theorem, are beautiful and thought-provoking. But their insights should not be applied when their conditions are not met. In real world, monopoly, power, politics and other market failures are pervasive and cannot be ignored
US

Debt Ceiling

Question A: A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would do substantial damage to financial markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Question B: A combination of the US federal government having to defer some invoice, benefit, and salary payments, and miss payments on Treasury securities for several weeks would lead to substantially lower employment within six months.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
4
Comment: Unlikely to see such strong employment effects in such a short time. But uncertain overall.
Question C: The requirement to periodically increase the debt ceiling measurably reduces the long-run size of the debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Comment: There are both positive and negative effects, but overall it's a very inefficient way of managing public debt.
US

Non-Compete Clauses

Question A: Prohibiting firms from imposing employment contract provisions that prevent workers from moving to a competitor or starting a competing business would lead to a substantial increase in wages in the affected industries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Non-compete clauses excessively empower firms and are not justified by the arguments their proponents offer. Nevertheless, there is no convincing evidence yet that they have a big impact on wages.
Question B: A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable increase in innovation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
4
Comment: Same as the previous question. The evidence is not there yet.
Question C: A ban on non-compete clauses would lead to a measurable reduction in firms’ investment in staff training.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: There is no evidence that firms are investing in training because of non-competes.
US

Music Event Ticketing

Question A: The market power of ticket-selling intermediaries leads to consumers who ultimately attend the music events paying substantially more and producers receiving substantially less than they would if the intermediary sector were more competitive.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
5
Question B: The present system of initial ticket selling and reselling through secondary ticket intermediaries often leads to large transfers between different groups of ticket buyers that could be partially captured by artists through higher initial ticket prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
5
Question C: Artists set prices at less than market-clearing levels in an effort to provide access for fans with modest incomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
4
Comment: Many factors affect artists' pricing decisions, and there is probably considerable heterogeneity in their priorities.
US

Twitter

Question A: Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Of course, software, design and services also matter. But networks are social media platforms' most valuable asset.
Question B: As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: The network-nature of social media platforms means that there are myriad economic and social externalities, and there is no reason to think that either the platforms or users will internalize them.
-see background information here

-see background information here

US

Commitment to Policy Rules

Question A: When economic policy-makers are unable to commit credibly in advance to a specific decision rule, they will often follow a poor policy trajectory.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: Provided that policymakers do not commit to excessively rigid rules that remain unchanged when previously-unforeseen contingencies arise.
Question B: Rules-based fiscal policies deliver substantially better outcomes than purely discretionary, on the spot, policy choices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: This would depend on how rule-based policies are conceptualized/specified and how (and whether) they respond to emergencies and previously-unforeseen events.
US

Computer Chips

Question A: Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of national policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: Strategic issues are absent from standard trade discussions. In reality such motives are important, esp. in the presence of international conflict. Strategic considerations are likely important for technologies that are central for other sectors, esp. military and communications.
Question B: Restrictions on exports of semiconductors and related high-tech equipment to China will substantially improve US technological leadership.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: There is uncertainty on this. The counterpoint is that China's investments and human resources are important for US technological flourishing. Or that these policies might further trigger Chinese investment for leadership. But on balance the claim is more likely to be correct.
US

Banks and Financial Crises

Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit substantially the wider economic damage from financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Comment: Research on financial crises has generated theoretical insights, but unsure whether they have translated into policy. It is uncertain how much of policy during the 2008 crisis was driven by economics and how much by politics.
-see background information here

-see background information here

Question B: Reforms of financial regulation since 2008 (and macroprudential policies in some countries) will not substantially reduce the probability of financial crises.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: I am not convinced that these reforms have tackled the main institutional problems related to excessive risk-taking and political connections by major banks.
US

Hurricane Economics

Question A: In the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, the level of Florida’s GDP in five years will be substantially lower than it otherwise would.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
4
Comment: Economic theory predicts that consumption and welfare should be lower, but GDP can be hired because of an investment boom to rebuild. There are several examples of this. Alternatively, of course, GDP could be lower because productive resources have been destroyed.
Question B: The prospect of further costly extreme weather events means that there is a substantial chance that some private property insurance markets will no longer exist in ten years in states such as Florida.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: Unclear. If such events become a certainty, insurance wouldn't make sense. If they become more likely but there is no adverse selection, there will be greater demand for insurance. If events are so bad that insurance companies could go bankrupt, this can prevent private insurance
Question C: Without large government subsidies, mandated flood insurance requirements would substantially reduce losses from subsequent natural disasters by encouraging economic activity to migrate from the most flood-prone areas.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Agree
5
Comment: There is a lot of sluggishness in adjustment and coordination failures. The hope that private insurance markets work well enough and investment and migration respond optimally is just that: I hope. It may be true or more likely not.
US

Student Loan Relief

Question A: The administration’s loan relief plan will not have a substantial impact on inflation in either direction.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: I never understood why student loan forgiveness should have a major effect on inflation. Of course it creates more government debt, but the effect of that on inflation seems rather small.
Question B: A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be substantially higher tuition fees at some universities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: One could write down a model in which this happens. But there is no evidence that this will happen in practice or the magnitude of any pass-through to tuition will be significant to be detected.
Question C: A longer-term impact of the administration’s loan relief plan is likely to be measurably higher student debt burdens in anticipation of future forgiveness.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: Once again this type of moral hazard could happen. And this is more likely than the pass-through to tuition. But it's still uncertain. Of course, policymakers should worry about this. For these reasons, debt forgiveness by itself is highly unlikely to have been the optimal policy
US

Oil Price Cap

Question A: A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: There are of course difficulties because the oil market is global and there will be supply diversion. But better than pure sanctions.
Question B: The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Unclear how the supply diversion would work. The oil market is global, but this does not guarantee that a price By a large player would have zero effect.
US

Electric Vehicles

Question A: The current $7,500 tax credit for purchasing electric vehicles is regressive.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: But this is misleading. Climate change is an existential emergency and its effects are larger on the poor. Need to use ALL policy options!
-see background information here
Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Yes, but again I object to the "either or" framing. Given the emergency, we need to do both and many other things, many much more radical.
US

Roe V. Wade Reversal

Question A: Laws restricting access to abortion are likely to have a negative impact on women's educational attainment, labor market participation, and earnings, particularly those in households of lower socio-economic status.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: States that ban abortion are likely to suffer significant economic losses.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: Unclear whether negative effects are large enough to be detectable/significant at the state level, and would depend on migration responses.
US

Labor Unions

Question A: Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to the earnings of current workers who become eligible to be members.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Stronger unions will likely push up wages for members. Complication is employer response/plant closures, if only a few plants unionize.
-see background information here
Question B: Increased unionization of the American workforce would give a noticeable boost to wages for the median household.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Unionization would affect some of low-pay workers, such as in warehouses and delivery, but also impact middle-pay workers in manufacturing.
Question C: Increased unionization of the American workforce would have a net positive effect on employment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Overall employment effect would depend on whether unions negotiate less automation and more worker-friendly technologies, which is uncertain
-see background information here
US

Price Gouging

Question A: It would serve the US economy well to make it unlawful for companies with revenues over $1 billion to offer goods or services for sale at an “unconscionably excessive price” during an exceptional market shock.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
6
Comment: In principle yes, but implementing this could be difficult, and setting the right level is hard (so that supply responses are not dulled).
Question B: It would serve the US economy well if companies making quarterly SEC filings were obliged to include a tabulation of all price changes of goods or services sold, together with the associated cost changes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: This would be useful info for investors and regulators. Not clear whether just information provision is sufficient, but it's a first step.
US

Stablecoins

Stablecoins that are not fully backed by either central bank reserves or government securities with minimal price volatility are inherently vulnerable to runs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
US

Energy Sanctions

High tariffs imposed by the European Union on imports of Russian natural gas would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia while limiting disruption to supplies to Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: "Effective" yes, but probably not as effective as complete bans. The exact effect on Europe is also hard to know.
US

Oil Industry Taxes

Question A: A windfall tax on the profits of large oil companies – with the revenue rebated to households – would provide an efficient means to protect the average US household from rising energy costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: But should be motivated not as windfall but punitive tax for all of their misbehavior on climate and clawing back of fossilfuel subsidies
Question B: Temporary suspension of state and federal gas taxes would lead to a meaningful and immediate reduction in consumer prices at the pump.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Yes, but that does not mean that it's a good policy. We should double down on renewable energy, not subsidize fossil fuels more
US

Ukraine

Question A: The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be stagflationary in that it will noticeably reduce global growth and raise global inflation over the next year.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: But considerable uncertainty as to how large this effect will be.
Question B: The economic and financial sanctions already implemented will lead to a deep recession in Russia.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: Yes, but recall that they are not fully comprehensive (yet). The West should halt all gas imports and exclude all Russian banks from Swift.
Question C: Targeting the Russian economy through a total ban on oil and gas imports carries a high risk of recession in European economies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Of course, it will be more costly for Europe, but not clear whether it will push them into severe recession.
Question D: Weaponizing dollar finance is likely to lead to a significant shift away from the dollar as the dominant international currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: What's the alternative? Renminbi? It can be argued that China has ruined its international standing with its fullthroated support for Russia
US

Crypto Assets

Question A: High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: There is an element of "fundamental value" as cryptos capture seigniorage value but this depends on "sentiments" concerning their adoption.
-see background information here
Question B: Given existing regulations, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the financial system, the fluctuations in their valuations pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: And a threat to climatic stability as the emissions they cause multiplied, at least in the case of bitcoin.
US

Child Tax Credit

Question A: A permanent version of the 2021 expansion of the child tax credit would reduce child poverty substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: The costs of increasing resources for low-income families via the expanded child tax credit would be substantially offset over the longer term by the fiscal benefits of improving life outcomes for children no longer growing up in poverty.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: I don't know what "Substantially" means. More research on how child tax credit affects human capital and subsequent earnings is needed.
Question C: Parental labor supply would be unlikely to fall significantly following reintroduction of the expanded child tax credit.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
US

Global Supply Chains

Question A: Firms’ incentives to reduce costs by sourcing inputs and products abroad have caused many American industries to become more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Complex supply chains tend to create "risk externalities" domestically and globally, which are often uninternalized.
Question B: Private firms have inadequate incentives to make investments to reduce the risk that disruptions in the supply of imports will cause shortages and raise domestic prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: This also, theoretically, follows from the "risk externalities". Security investments in a network benefit other firms and consumers
-see background information here
Question C: Global supply chain disruptions are the main driver of elevated US inflation over the past year.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Supply chain disruptions are a contributing factor, but probably not the "main" factor.
Question A: A significant factor behind today’s higher US inflation is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
6
Comment: The US has a big business problem, with various pernicious effects. But it is not clear whether this has been a major factor in inflation.
Question B: Antitrust interventions could successfully reduce US inflation over the next 12 months.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Disagree
6
Comment: Even if excessive monopoly power was a contributing factor, antitrust couldn't act that fast.
Question C: Price controls as deployed in the 1970s could successfully reduce US inflation over the next 12 months.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Disagree
6
Comment: Effective price controls, by definition, would reduce price increases, but they would most probably create other huge distortions.
US

Omicron

Question A: Even without renewed Covid-19 restrictions, uncertainty about the health threat from the Omicron variant is likely to deliver a significant hit to economic activity from now through the first half of 2022.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: If world vaccine supply continues to be limited, global social welfare would rise by more if those vaccines were made widely available across Africa (with support for effective delivery) rather than accelerating booster vaccinations in rich countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: Global social welfare is not well defined. Recovery in the West important for the world economy. But overall agree on humanitarian grounds
Question C: Imposing travel bans on countries where new Covid-19 variants are discovered will make it less likely that countries will reveal new variants to the rest of the world.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
US

Inflation

Question A: The supply bottlenecks that are currently contributing to rising prices can be reasonably expected to abate without causing inflation over the longer term to be above the Fed’s target.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
US

Climate Targets

Question A: Efforts to achieve the goal of reaching net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on global economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Renewables are cost competitive with fossil fuels in most tasks. Plus, investment in new technology and infrastructure can boost growth.
-see background information here
Question B: Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: Transition costs will be high for China & some developing nations. Plus big oil & energy are still very powerful. Global coordination is key
Question C: Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: Yes. But it is not sufficient. Investment in green technologies plus public campaigns, e.g., to reduce beef consumption, are also needed.
Question A: The introduction of natural experiments to economic analysis of the labor market and related areas has led to a more precise understanding of cause and effect.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Strongly Agree
7
Question B: The ‘credibility revolution’ in empirical economics has improved our understanding of a number of public policy issues, including education, immigration and the minimum wage.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question C: In pursuit of credible research designs, researchers often seek good answers instead of good questions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: I would say "sometimes" rather than "often". Credibility revolution is fantastic for economics but we can/should not sacrifice big questions
US

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Climate crisis is an existential risk, and it is pretty scandalous that this information is not readily available.
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact significantly.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: " Significantly" is difficult to know. There is a huge amount of greenwashing(esp big oil).This could obfuscate things even with disclosure.
US

Vaccine Mandate

Mandating staff vaccinations and/or regular testing at big employers would promote a faster and stronger economic recovery.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: But vaccines and testing are not perfect substitutes. Vaccination is absolutely necessary for reaching something resembling "herd immunity".
Question A: The use of non-compete clauses in US employment contracts reduces workers' mobility and wages by more than is justified by the protection of employers' intellectual property and trade secrets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: No definitive evidence on this. Seems plausible that non-competes are bad for workers and mobility. Caveat: one good paper finds 0 effects.
-see background information here
Question B: Occupational licensing reduces mobility and wages for workers in many sectors where they could safely deliver services that consumers would prefer to those offered by licensed workers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Comment: "Many" is difficult to judge. The evidence is far from compelling. In some occs, licensing is here rent-seeking. In others, it may be useful
US

Competition

Question A: Industry consolidation and weaker competition in the United States meaningfully constrain innovation and wage growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
5
Comment: My prior is yes, but we don't have enough evidence. My work doesn't find huge effects from markups to wage growth. But more is needed here.
-see background information here
Question B: Americans pay too much for broadband, cable television, and telecommunications services, in part because of a lack of adequate competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: I think here we are on firmer ground and there is more evidence supporting this claim.
US

Open Economies

Question A: The introduction of even small trade frictions between neighboring countries can result in significant economic damage, particularly to smaller exporting firms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
4
Comment: "Significant" here is very unclear. It can have a proportionately large effect on small firms, but unclear in the aggregate.
Question B: A national economic boom based on natural resources is likely to harm other sectors of the economy, particularly manufacturing firms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: The answer would be yes for manufacturing that does not use the resource in question as input. Otherwise, it could be positive.
US

Global Corporate Taxes

Question A: A global minimum corporate tax rate would limit the benefits to companies of shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions without biasing where they invest.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
5
Comment: But the benefits from such a tax depend on the rate. Multilateral bargaining may lead to an excessively low rate, missing a huge opportunity
Question B: A stable international tax system in which the major advanced economies collect a minimum rate on corporate income is achievable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Tax havens need to be regulated as well. There will be many more accounting tricks for tax evasion by MNEs. But feasible to close loopholes.
Question C: A global corporate tax system that is based on the location of final consumers would be more efficient than one based on the location of corporate headquarters and production facilities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
5
Comment: Headquarter location should be irrelevant. Uniform taxation is a good benchmark. Less clear whether based on cons. or production is better.
US

Overheating

The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Inflation is undoubtedly more likely now than it has been for 20 years. But the qualifiers "serious" and "prolonged" are too strong.
US

Unemployment Benefits

Question A: The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 constitutes a major disincentive to work for lower-wage workers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Probably yes. Slow response of employment to demand doesn't seem to be due to other factors. But no hard evidence and still some uncertainty
-see background information here
Question B: The $300 supplement to weekly unemployment benefits available from now through September 6 is likely to lead to re-employment wages for currently unemployed workers that are higher by an economically meaningful amount.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Theory strongly suggests yes. But with low employment growth and the supplement set to expire, the hoped-for impact may be small or absent.
-see background information here
Question C: Click to write the question text
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
0
Question A: Reliable Covid-19 vaccines will reach developing countries more quickly if the rich countries pay the pharmaceutical companies at prevailing prices to manufacture and distribute the vaccines (or to license production and support licensees), rather than waiving patent protection.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
6
Comment: Forcing pharmaceutical companies into a free licensing agreement with developing countries could be very effective.
Question B: The benefits to the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of Covid vaccines at prevailing prices and providing them for free to the rest of the world exceed the costs that the rich countries would incur.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
4
Agree
6
Question A: The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').’

For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Comment: Depends on how monetary institutions evolve & I worry about end of privacy: gov't having too much information about individual transactions
Question B: Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: I don't see why the US or the UK cannot pursue standard monetary policy without digital currency.
Question C: The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Comment: Reduced transaction costs will be positive (how much? Unclear). Reduced privacy may be negative, especially combined with other surveillance
Question A: In an economy open to capital flows, monetary policy can only be effective with a floating exchange rate.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: The market may expect the exchange rate pegged to be dropped or modified, affecting (expected) relative prices.
Question B: For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
4
Comment: Fixed exchange rates create greater certainty, but also more room for mistakes and unsustainable booms. So how they are managed is key.
Question C: The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: US mobility is exaggerated (see refs for small mobility effects from large shocks). Institutions and correlation of cycle is more important.
-see background information here

-see background information here

-see background information here

Question A: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Relaxing ex post monopoly after invention helps users, esp. poor users. Sometimes IPR important for market entry but not likely in this case
Question B: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
5
Comment: Drug innovation respond to profits (see links). But there is plenty of profits from rich nations; those from LDCs won't to be decisive.
-see background information here
Question C: Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
5
Comment: Global cooperation is key for a global pandemic. If half of the world does not vaccinate, new mutants will emerge and spread in the West too
-see background information here
US

Tackling Obesity

Question A: Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would improve social welfare more than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Uncertain
3
Question B: A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt, and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Uncertain
3
US

Pricing Emissions

Sound policy would involve increasing significantly the currently near-zero price of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
9
Comment: The science is very clear. However, carbon tax by itself won't be enough. It should combined with meaningful direct support for clean techs.
-see background information here
US

Short Positions

Question A: Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, would lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Agree
6
Comment: Both theoretically and empirically, there are reasons to expect that shortselling can lead to bubbles and other price distortions.
Question B: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would improve the accuracy of stock prices.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
4
Comment: Transparency should help, but there are various complications related to herding and complex inferences less sophisticated traders can draw.
US

Coronavirus Relief

Question A: Until mass vaccination is achieved, any additional government spending going directly to households should focus on keeping low-income individuals and families safe and healthy rather than on boosting current economic activity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Interpreting "safe and healthy" as enough money to prevent poverty for low income households. Also aid for state and local govs is important
Question B: If the goal is to boost current economic activity, targeting checks at households making less than $75,000 per year would be more cost-effective than providing checks to higher income households as well.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
US

The US Minimum Wage

Question A: The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do.

A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Evidence is that small increases in min. wage (starting from US lows) don't have large disemployment effects. Don't know what $15 will do
Question B: A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: $15 min wage would have very different effects in MA than in AL. But a cost of living adjustment should be legislated at the federal level
US

After Brexit

Question A: The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
1
Agree
5
Comment: That's my median expectation. Not because of direct effect of less trade but because of worse policies that will result from brexit politics
Question B: The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
4
Comment: Same answer. Uncertain. EU policies may be worse without written, but even less clear in this case. Loss of trade with UK less important.
US

Antitrust Action

Requiring Facebook to divest WhatsApp and Instagram is likely to make society better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Big tech has an oversized and negative effect on direction of technology. Reducing their size and economic/social power is a first remedy.
-see background information here
US

Personnel Economics

Question A: Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: But norms, morale and non-monetary incentives matter greatly inside organizations, and monetary incentives can sometimes erode/disrupt them.
Question B: Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Big caveat: that "effort" is often non-productive as well, e.g., networking, connections, bending rules, and getting credit for others' work
US

Student Debt Forgiveness

Question A: Having the government issue additional debt to pay off all current outstanding student loans would be net regressive.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: Would depend on how it's done. Yes lots of student debt among those earning more than 100K a year. So risk of handout to yuppies is there.
Question B: Having the government issue enough additional debt to pay off student loans up to a threshold, for borrowers whose income is below a certain level, could be progressive.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Yes this would be much better. Student debt is a problem for low and middle income households, not those earning more than 100K or 150K.
Question C: Extension of the suspension of payments on student loans after the end of the year would support the recovery more effectively than devoting equivalent resources to general income-based transfer payments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Unemployment benefits, aid to states and general stimulus would be more effective in the current pandemic environment.
Question A: Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Quality of algorithm likely play a role early on, but now it's mostly network effects---dominance breeds dominance.
Question B: In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: It walks, swims and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck. It looks, behaves and dominates like a monopoly, it'll probably harm welfare.
Question C: The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: This should probably involve more than light-touch regulation. We should also deal with the effects of Big Tech on direction of innovation
US

Auction Theory

The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
Comment: One caveat to better allocative efficiency: more concentration and more monopoly power.
US

Tax Proposals

Question A: Restoring the top individual federal income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes over $400,000 (from the current 37%) and taxing the capital gains and dividends of taxpayers with income over $1 million at that top rate (instead of the current preferential rate of 20%), with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be unlikely to hurt economic growth noticeably.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Removing the overly favorable tax treatment of capital would have other benefits, such as reducing incentives for excessive automation.
-see background information here
Question B: Restoring the top tax rate, removing the preferential rate on capital gains and dividends, and raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, with no other associated changes in taxes or spending, would be likely to lead to a meaningful sustained reduction in fiscal deficits.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
US

Economic Recovery

Question A: The US economy would be substantially stronger today if the state and local ‘stay-at-home’ orders had been more uniform and lasted longer in the first half of the year.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: With better lockdown policies, there would have been tens of thousands of fewer deaths, but probably not much better GDP outcomes.
Question B: The economy will receive a substantial boost as soon as K-12 schools can be safely opened in person nationwide.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
6
Comment: The key word is SAFELY. That means COVID is under control. If schools open without that, second wave would be much worse and GDP would fall.
US

Fed Strategy

The Fed’s revised strategy to focus on employment shortfalls and a more flexible interpretation of the inflation target will make little practical difference to monetary policy outcomes over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Difficult to know, but it could be a major change, making monetary policy more responsive to the labor market, not just the stock market
Question A: Employment growth is currently constrained more by firms' lack of interest in hiring than people’s willingness to work at prevailing wages.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Question B: Reducing supplemental levels of unemployment benefits so that no workers receive more than a 100% replacement rate would be a more effective way to balance incentives and income support than simply stopping the supplement at the end of this month.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
4
Agree
7
Question C: A well-designed unemployment insurance system would tie federal contributions to states on the basis of each state’s economic and public health conditions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: One might have to worry about state moral hazard, but in the current environment, this is not the first order concern.
US

New Visa Ban

Question A: Even if it is temporary, the ban on visas for skilled workers, including researchers, will weaken US leadership in STEM and R&D.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: US technology sector and R&D, as well as academia, heavily depend on attracting foreign scientists and workers.
Question B: Significantly fewer top foreign students will be attracted to US universities as a result of increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: Foreign students will come less if they feel unwelcome, which current policies achieve. The hassle and uncertainty factors exacerbate this.
Question C: If increased restrictions on visas for skilled workers are made permanent, a noticeable share of research activities by US and foreign companies will move abroad.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: Won't happen overnight, but hard to imagine how it wouldn't. Evidence from anti-Jewish policies in Third Reich universities confirm this.
Question A: Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
5
Comment: Social incentives are high.Unclear how much more productive vaccine research can be done with more incentive. But FDA can be improved hugely
Question B: Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
5
Comment: Unclear gains, but huge windfall for pharmaceutical companies.
Question C: Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should be mandatory for every US resident (except those with health exceptions, such as infants and people with compromised immunity) with the cost covered by the federal government.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: Of course!
US

Political Economics

Question A: Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Strongly Agree
7
Question B: The US has a smaller social welfare system than other rich countries in part because it is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: But unclear how much of this is because of the current effect of these variables or the historical, long-lasting compromises they induced.
Question A: Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Comment: Market signals are important. But in crisis, public solidarity is critical. Allocating vital equipment to the rich rich would destroy it.
Question B: Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: It may be better to allocate them to the needy via subsidies and government programs than price caps, which may distort signals to producers
Question C: Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Provided that corruption and inefficiency in choosing suppliers can be kept under control.
Question A: Assuming that additional federal spending were to be structured as in the CARES Act, a substantial further spending program now will ultimately be less costly than a smaller program because it will better help to avoid long-term economic damage and promote a stronger recovery.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: Seems like small businesses, which are in greatest need, haven't received much support, only large firms have. More of the same isn't good.
Question B: Having a fiscal rule that increases social spending on programs like unemployment insurance and SNAP based on the conditions of the economy would be an improvement on the discretionary way in which these programs are currently operated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Comment: But important to make sure that democratic participation in policymaking isn't completely sidelined.
Question A: Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Low income countries lack public health and fiscal resources to contain fallout from the epidemic and state capacity to coordinate action.
Question B: A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
4
Comment: The lasting the developed world needs is the disease to spread uncontrollably in parts of the world.
Question C: Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
US

Small Firms in the Crisis

Question A: Current institutional arrangements mean that small firms will be able to renegotiate with creditors and landlords to avoid bankruptcy during the lockdown.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Renegotiation is hard at the best of times. Casual evidence suggests it hasn't worked out well with banks in many cases so far.
Question B: A program that allows small businesses to skip rent and utilities during the lockdown, but repay them slowly over time afterwards, would be a net benefit to the economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Caveat: perhaps some allowance when landlord is a small business or an individual.
Question A: The balance of federal and local government support to address the economic impact of the crisis has thus far been tilted too much towards supporting firms rather than individuals.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Protecting the supply chain against collapse is important as well
Question B: Government provision of financial support to firms to keep workers on payroll for the duration of the lockdown will make the recovery faster than if the only recourse for workers to replace income were unemployment insurance.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Comment: Protecting firm-worker and firm-firm matches from being destroyed is valuable
Question A: With the economy in lockdown, low-income workers who are above the poverty line will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution (even accounting for all government support schemes).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
6
Comment: Low-income self-employed will be hardest hit. Effects are generally unequalizing, but the additional government programs are progressive
Question B: With the economy in lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: School resources, family resources and living arrangements make online learning much harder for low-income kids
Question C: The mortality impact of Covid-19 is likely to fall disproportionately on disadvantaged socio-economic groups.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: Evidence from New York seems to support this.
Question A: Even if tests for Covid-19 are being rationed, there is an urgent need for some random testing to establish baseline levels of the virus to inform any decisions about ending lockdowns.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
3
Strongly Agree
7
Question B: Required elements for an economic ‘restart’ after lockdowns include a massive increase in testing capacity (for infections and antibodies) along with a coherent strategy for preventing new outbreaks and reintroducing low-risk/no-risk individuals into public activities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
3
Strongly Agree
8
Question A: A comprehensive policy response to the coronavirus will involve tolerating a very large contraction in economic activity until the spread of infections has dropped significantly.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: But containment doesn't mean complete elimination. May be optimal to stagger return to work for low-risk groups once peak-disease is gone
Question B: Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Comment: Again this applies to pick-disease.
Question C: Optimally, the government would invest more than it is currently doing in expanding treatment capacity through steps such as building temporary hospitals, accelerating testing, making more masks and ventilators, and providing financial incentives for the production of a successful vaccine.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Absolutely. US federal response has been incoherent & counterproductive. Hard to understand lack of investment ahead of current situation.
US

Coronavirus

Question A: Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Question B: The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
US

Mandatory Medicare I

Question A: Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to improved access to healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Comment: Increased coverage is almost by definition. Probably better to allow top-up by private insurance and other means, and add more cost controls
Question B: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to longer waiting times for healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: Not clear what meaningful is. Without private insurance, some will definitely experience longer queues. Details matter greatly.
US

Mandatory Medicare II

Question A: Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to lower aggregate medical debt among patients.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: But it would probably lead to higher aggregate spending unless various measures are simultaneously taken. Transition would be very difficult
Question B: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to lower aggregate innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Question is whether most of the lost innovation is high social value. It may be some of the "me too" drugs and costly techs that go down.
Question C: Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would improve health outcomes for the majority of the population.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Question A: Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
Question B: The near certainty that the UK will leave the European Union’s customs union and single market in 2020 offers a sizeable export market opportunity for American business.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
US

Payday Lending

A ban on very short-term loans at very high annualized interest rates (aka payday lending) would make most people who use or might use them better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: There is a demand for these loans, but also miscalculations and longer-term problems for borrowers, including for their families.
Question A: Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: From every angle climate change risk is huge. Not a minor factor. Unclear how it will affect monetary policy, but unlikely not to impact it
Question B: The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Tail risks from climate can certainly impact US and global economic stability, and hence financial stability.
US

State-run Lotteries

Taking into account the revenues, consumer surplus, purchasing patterns by income, and possible consumer biases, state-run lotteries (such as Powerball and scratch-off games) increase social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
4
Comment: They are regressive taxes. Only excuse might be otherwise the private sector will offer them and capture the revenues. Yet not convincing
Question A: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: RCTs like all other tools are of course useful. Each has limitations. For RCTs challenges are scalability, GE and political economy effects.
-see background information here
Question B: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Depends on what significant means. RCTs provide valuable knowledge but development is mostly about institutions, norms, politics, technology
Question A: Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: Unshared gains from growth, esp when resulting in part from the political power of the rich, destroy trust in democratic institutions.
Question B: Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: A better social safety net would help. What is needed is not just fiscal redistribution but good jobs (high-wage employment opportunities)
-see background information here
Question C:
Governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: More spending for a more generous and rational social safety net, job creation programs and education are vital. This needs more tax revenue
US

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: Cutting wages or polluting increase shareholder value with considerable social cost. Competition will not necessarily drive them out
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with negligible impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Some of the steps will be costly for shareholders.
Question C: Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: Moving away from extreme shareholder values needs simultaneous changes in laws & norms. Imposing topdown regulations wouldn’t be sufficient
US

Cryptocurrencies

A substantial source of the value of decentralized private cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, arises from their convenience for use in illegal activities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Comment: Ability/hope to "print currency" & hope of developing technologies to be sold to banks are other sources of value (for non-bitcoin digitals)
US

Equal Pay

Question A: In a case like the US women’s national soccer team where the revenues that they generate and their on-field performance both exceed those of the men’s team, there is no justification for lower pay.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: Respect for market forces is important, but these should be distinguished from systemic discrimination against certain groups such as women
Question B: Fining companies above a certain size that fail to provide the same remuneration to men and women employees performing comparable roles would be an effective way of closing the gender pay gap.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Fighting against discrimination is important, but such tax policies may backfire, e.g., by discouraging the hiring of lower skill women
Question A: Mexico's persistent bilateral trade surplus with the United States implies that Mexico is following policies that keep the peso artificially weak against the US dollar.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Strongly Disagree
8
Question B: The existence of a multi-year trade deficit of Country A with Country B implies that B has successfully tilted the playing field in its favor in terms of such policies as tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and the exchange rate between them.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Strongly Disagree
7
Question A: The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university accurately reflects the way that economists think about a range of economics problems.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Principles courses at most universities are out of touch with the emphasis on empirical work and incentives/market imperfections
Question B: The first required class for undergraduate economics majors at my university addresses the most pressing economic issues in the US.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
5
US

China-US Trade War

Question A: The incidence of the latest round of US import tariffs is likely to fall primarily on American households.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
6
Comment: There is too much uncertainty about how much damage these tariffs will do to China and global growth, so impossible to say.
Question B: The impact of the tariffs – and any Chinese countermeasures – on US prices and employment is likely to be felt most heavily by lower income groups and regions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Among US households, lower income ones will bear most direct costs.. But hard to know how any damage to global growth affects capital income
US

Fed Appointments

Selecting candidates for membership of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) based primarily on their political views would lead to worse monetary policy outcomes than has been the case over the last 15 years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Absolutely. But we should also worry about other things, including links to the financial industry.
US

College Admissions

Question A: The admission of children of alumni and donors at elite private colleges and universities crowds out applicants with greater academic potential.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
6
Question B: The net effect of admitting children of alumni and donors (including any impact on donations and any losses of other high potential applicants) is likely to be a reduction in the contribution of colleges and universities to society.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Uncertain
5
US

Wealth Taxes

Question A: Senator Warren’s proposed wealth tax would be much more difficult to enforce than existing federal taxes because of difficulties of valuation and the ways by which the wealthy can under-report their true wealth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Taxing capital income at the same rate as labor income would be simpler, more effective and much less difficult to implement.
Question B: If successfully enforced, Senator Warren’s proposed wealth tax would substantially decrease the share of wealth going to the top 0.1% of wealth-holders after 20 years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Agree
5
Comment: "successful enforcement" is very difficult to define and achieve. Hence uncertain.
Question C: A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be equally accomplished with modifications to existing federal taxes – for example, revising the estate tax and/or capital gains tax.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: What would be most successful would be a combination of relatively high estate taxes combined with taxes on capital income.
Question A: Forcing Amazon to divest Whole Foods now would be in the public interest.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Question B: Acquisitions by large tech platforms where there are risks of anti-competitive effects like those posed by Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods should not be permitted.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: I agree with the general statement, but I’m not sure whether it applies to whole foods
Question C: Large tech platforms, such as Amazon Marketplace and Google Search, should be designated as ‘platform utilities' and broken apart from any participant on that platform.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Generally yes. But the principle formulated here may be too broad
US

Modern Monetary Theory

Question A: Countries that borrow in their own currency should not worry about government deficits because they can always create money to finance their debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Strongly Disagree
8
Question B: Countries that borrow in their own currency can finance as much real government spending as they want by creating money.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Strongly Disagree
8
Question A: When local governments compete by offering subsidies to a firm that is willing to relocate, and shopping across multiple alternative areas, the firm typically captures most of value that is created via the relocation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Very hard to know the answer to this. I would find it hard to believe that they could capture all of the games, but they may capture a lot.
Question B: A federal prohibition against states and municipalities offering tax subsidies to attract specific businesses that are shopping across multiple areas to relocate would be welfare improving for the average taxpayer.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
4
Comment: Businesses have become too powerful; such competition is one more step in that direction. But we should think about excessive agglomeration.
It is best for society if the management of U.S. publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these impacts feedback to impact shareholder wealth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Disagree
7
Comment: Is it ok for companies to cheat to max shareholder value? Where do you draw the line? A broader set of objectives for companies is a must.
US

Diversified Investing

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Strongly Agree
8
US

Top Marginal Tax Rates

Raising the top federal marginal tax on earned personal income to 70% (and holding the rest of the current tax code, including the top bracket definition, fixed) would raise substantially more revenue (federal and state, combined) without lowering economic activity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: It will increase substantial revenue. Impact on economic activity is somewhat uncertain, but probably not huge, except through tax avoidance
US

Ranked-Choice Voting

Rather than using second-round runoffs to settle elections in which no candidate wins a first-round majority, it would be better to use ranked-choice voting (as in the state of Maine) in which voters are encouraged to rank all of the candidates.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: No voting system is perfect. Conflicts/ambiguities cannot be avoided. But ranked voting is typically better &allows for entry by new parties
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.

Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: The US healthcare system is badly broken. Of course there are other factors, but US has lower life expectancy than Greece, Costa Rica, Chile
US

Climate Change Policies

Question A: Considering a broad range of costs and benefits is a better tool for guiding climate policy than setting temperature limits (such as 1.5 °C , eg) based on expected links between temperature increases and the extent of environmental harm.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
7
Agree
7
Comment: There is great urgency. We need a redline, and 1.5C is as good as any, esp taking into account consequences of greater rises for some areas.
Question B: Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Of course, they are equivalent under ideal conditions. But a predictable price for carbon is very useful for future planning and as a signal
US

Increasing Returns

Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Agree
6
Comment: Fixed costs & market power in tech are a fact of life. But this need not correspond to simple IRS b/o duplication & business/idea stealing
US

Market Share and Market Power

If a small number of firms have a large combined market share in a properly defined market, it is strong evidence that those firms have substantial market power.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: Yes of course, modern IO has warned us against this. But if it looks, walks and quacks like a duck, it is most probably a duck.
US

Ride-Sharing Caps

Question A: Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Comment: But I remain worried about the merging monopoly power and potential control of companies like Uber. Regulation is key.
Question B: To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Strongly Agree
7
Comment: 1. Taxes are typically better than limiting the number of cars. 2. Making taxes depend on the level of congestion is key.
US

Trade Disruptions

Because global supply chains are more important now, import tariffs are likely substantially more costly than they would have been 25 years ago.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Yes, for intermediate goods. For those mostly consumed, this argument would have less bite.
Britain's Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:

Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Overreliance on monetary policy for achieving productivity growth has huge downside.
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
4
Comment: Vigorous anti-trust policy from EU is critical for competition. Question implies domestic bias is EU-specific. US policy is no different.
US

Sports Betting

All things considered, US society will be better off if sports betting becomes legal in more US states (beyond Nevada).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Letting people decide whether & how they gamble is good, but gambling comes with regressive taxes & manipulation of a vulnerable population
US

Autonomous Cars

Over the next decade, autonomous cars will raise average welfare in the US by at least as much as smartphones have over the past decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
4
Comment: Great potential, but it is uncertain both when they can be used in large-scale and how much they can reduce costs and increase productivity.
Restricting eligibility for senior government economic-policy posts by requiring a graduate degree in economics would reduce the chances for good public policy outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
US

The NCAA

NCAA Division I schools coordinate compensation for men’s basketball and football players (precluding actual pay and limiting non-monetary benefits), providing rents to member schools (which may be shared with others) at the expense of those players.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Imposing new US tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Strongly Disagree
8
Comment: It will help some Americans and hurt others. But the overall benefits are likely to be quite limited, and losses larger.
Question A: By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more for its recipients' well-being than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: By providing electronic benefit cards to choose and buy groceries at stores, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program currently does more to raise food security and reduce hunger than it would if the program directly provided a smaller array of foods to its recipients, while commensurately reducing the amount they could spend on groceries of their own choosing.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
US

Missing Productivity Growth

The biggest reason for the measured slowdown in US productivity growth since the mid-2000s is that productivity increases have gone mismeasured, including new and better products and services that have been insufficiently captured by real output data.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
5
Comment: There is no evidence supporting this claim. Productivity has always been mismeasured. No compelling evidence that this has gotten worse.
US

The Dollar

Because of the many special and unique roles that the dollar plays in global commerce, US citizens are substantially better off than they otherwise would be.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Seigniorage is not trivial. The perceived safety and desirability US assets is unlikely to be unrelated to this role of the dollar.
US

Immigration and Innovation

Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
6
Comment: The US has become not just less open to immigrants, but less open full stop. It's bad news for innovation & for the future of institutions.
US

Aging

Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Agree
6
Comment: Evidence just doesn't support it. Aging nations are growing no less than the rest. One possible reason: induced investments in automation..
-see background information here
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
US

Bitcoin II

Question A: A bitcoin has a fundamental value of at least $1,000.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
5
Question B: The best forecast for the value of one bitcoin in 2 years is its current price.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Question A: The concept of “maximum sustainable employment” is well defined enough to be used beneficially in economic policymaking.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
6
Comment: I don't think it's well defined. Lots of policies and institutions affect employment. Which one is "sustainable"? Does it mean efficient?
Question B: Right now the US economy is operating below maximum sustainable employment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: The concept doesn't make sense. But of course we have policy options to increase efficiency in the labor market and employment. Lots of them
US

Tax Reform

Question A: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — US GDP will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Disagree
6
Comment: The simplification of the tax code could be beneficial, but it is more than offset by its highly regressive nature.
Question B: If the US enacts a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate — and assuming no other changes in tax or spending policy — the US debt-to-GDP ratio will be substantially higher a decade from now than under the status quo.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: How could it be otherwise?
US

Balanced Budget Amendment

Question A: Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially reduce output variability in the United States.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
7
Strongly Disagree
7
Question B: Amending the Constitution to require that the federal government end each fiscal year without a deficit would substantially lower the cost of borrowing for the federal government.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
5
Comment: There might be an effect on cost of borrowing, but unlikely to be "substantial".
US

Behavioral Economics

Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: But an important caveat: almost all focus has been on individual behavior, and how this affects market behavior is not always clear.
US

Refugees in Germany

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: Recent research finds negative employment effects from industrial robots. Effects of AI and more mature robotics tech could be different.
-see background information here
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: Negative wage effects on at least some workers and productivity improvements are likely. Politics is the real constraint on redistribution
US

Inflation Target

Question A: If the Fed changed its inflation target from 2% to 4%, the long-run costs of inflation for households would be essentially unchanged.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Disagree
5
Question B: Raising the inflation target to 4% would make it possible for the Fed to lower rates by a greater amount in a future recession.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
5
US

Deficits

If the US reduced its fiscal deficit, then its trade deficit would also shrink.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: By identity, current account = financial account. But this doesn't mean that causality runs from budget deficit or current account.
Question A: The US should increase spending now on roads, railways, bridges and airports (including new projects, maintenance or both).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: The advisability of increasing federal spending on roads, railways, bridges and airports is independent of whether the US also enacts tax cuts that substantially lower revenues.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Because labor markets across different sectors are connected, rising productivity in manufacturing leads the cost of labor-intensive services — such as education and health care — to rise.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
US

Tax Reforms

Question A: Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Question B: The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Strongly Disagree
8
US

Border Adjustment Tax

Question A: Implementing a "destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)" of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially reduce the US trade deficit within the next few years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
4
Comment: Replacing the sales tax with a value-added tax would be a good idea. This is less clear, but no major effect deficit.
Question B: Implementing a “destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)” of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially raise prices for US consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Disagree
5
US

The CBO

Question A: Forecasting the effects of complex legislative actions is hard, so even competent, non-ideological and non-partisan projections could differ substantially from outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Strongly Agree
9
Question B: Adjusting for legal restrictions on what the CBO can assume about future legislation and events, the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
US

High-Skilled Immigrant Visas

Question A: If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, expected US tax revenues will rise materially over the next four years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Disagree
7
Comment: Basic economic theory. Cheaper factor expands output. Revenues increase not decrease.
Question B: If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, employment for American workers will rise materially over the next four years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Comment: The evidence is not clear. But no support for a strong effect.
US

Sports Stadiums

Providing state and local subsidies to build stadiums for professional sports teams is likely to cost the relevant taxpayers more than any local economic benefits that are generated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
5
US

Trump and Share Prices

Question A: US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
6
Comment: They are more likely to increase the corporate profits of listed firms than all firms, and also in the short/medium run rather than long run
Question B: US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
5
Comment: They are much more likely to be disastrous for the economy and the US political system. The economic policies we know about are shambles.
US

Economic Policy Advice

The Council of Economic Advisors is likely to give the US president better policy advice if the Chair and Members of the CEA have published peer-reviewed economics research.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: At least familiarity with nature of econ evidence and recent research is a must. Nonacademics often underestimate uncertainty all evidence.
US

100-Day Plan

Question A: If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan (see link) are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of middle-class Americans over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Strongly Disagree
6
Comment: Even if we no longer import from and offshore to China and Mexico, manufacturing jobs won't come back. If they did, they would before robots
Question B: If all of the “Seven actions to protect American workers” in President-elect Trump’s 100-day plan are enacted, it will more likely than not improve the economic prospects of low-skilled Americans over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Strongly Disagree
6
Comment: Increased infrastructure spending could help construction, but the overall plan won't help workers & will likely reduce medium term growth.
US

AT&T and Time Warner

A merger of AT&T and Time Warner would likely increase consumer surplus over the ensuing decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
4
US

Taxes and Mandatory Spending

Long run fiscal sustainability in the US will require some combination of cuts in currently promised Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Yes as long as "cuts" are interpreted as slower than projected growth. Provided that economic growth continues, no need for level cuts
US

Import Duties

Adding new or higher import duties on products such as air conditioners, cars, and cookies — to encourage producers to make them in the US — would be a good idea.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Strongly Disagree
7
Comment: Cookies and ACs definitely not. But there might be a case for tariffs for TEMPORARY tariffs in the face of large shocks such as China.
Question A: Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would lower (at least temporarily) the premium earned by current American workers with similar degrees.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Question B: Allowing US-based employers to hire many more immigrants with advanced degrees in science or engineering would raise per capita income in the US over time.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
US

Brexit II

Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
5
Comment: Probably lower, but too much uncertainty. The UK-EU deal likely to be similar to the status quo ante, so should not have too large an effect
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: Two negative effects: greater uncertainty about the periphery's future, and absence of British lobbying for more open EU markets.
US

Universal Basic Income

Granting every American citizen over 21-years old a universal basic income of $13,000 a year — financed by eliminating all transfer programs (including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, housing subsidies, household welfare payments, and farm and corporate subsidies) — would be a better policy than the status quo.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
6
Comment: Current US status quo is horrible. A more efficient and generous social safety net is needed. But UBI is expensive and not generous enough
The ratio of the 90th to the 10th percentile of the US income distribution has been unaffected by the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
4
Comment: Perhaps top 1% share (especially in wealth). Because of the induced stock market boom, but this is uncertain. Certainly not 90-10.
US

Cadillac Tax

The “Cadillac tax” on expensive employer-provided health insurance plans will reduce costly distortions in US health care if it is allowed to take effect as scheduled in 2018.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
US

Breaking Up Banks

Question A: The four largest domestic US banks currently have around 40% of the industry’s domestic assets (an average of 10% each). In early 1998, before Glass-Steagall ended and before Citicorp merged with Travelers, they held 13.2% (an average of 3.3% each). Thirty years ago, before interstate branching was fully permitted, that combined share was around 8% (an average of 2% each).
Capping US banks’ size so that no single bank could be larger than 4% of the sector's domestic assets would lower systemic risk in the US.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Political connections and systemic effects of risktaking make concentration in finance likely more pernicious than elsewhere. 4% a ?
Question B: The US financial system would contribute more to the average American's welfare if the size of US banks were capped so that none could be larger than 4% of the sector's domestic assets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
4
Comment: Against the benefits of lower systemic risk there is the loss of business to other financial centers. Global regulation would be better.
Question A: By providing important measures of US economic performance — including employment, consumer prices, wages, job openings, time allocation in households, and productivity — the Bureau of Labor Statistics creates social benefits that exceed its annual cost of roughly $610 million.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: Cuts in BLS spending would likely involve net social costs because potential declines in the quality of data, and thus their usefulness to researchers and decision makers, would exceed any budget savings.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Strongly Agree
7
US

Trade and Toughness

An important reason why many workers in Michigan and Ohio have lost jobs in recent years is because US presidential administrations over the past 30 years have not been tough enough in trade negotiations.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
6
Comment: US trade with China caused large emp. declines. But the main mitigating policy should be worker adjustment programs, not trade negotiations.
-see background information here
US

Primary Voting

Question A: There is no perfect voting system. That is, no voting system can ensure that the winner will be the person who best represents voters’ wishes, including how intensely they favor or disfavor each candidate.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: One clear defect of a winner-take-all election with 3 or more candidates, and with each voter choosing only one candidate, is that a candidate who is strongly disliked by a majority, but strongly liked by a minority, can beat a candidate who is liked by a majority and disliked by relatively few.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
US

Oil Price Speculation

Large movements in monthly oil prices, either up or down, are driven primarily by speculators, as opposed to changes in the current (and planned) supply or demand for oil.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: Huge changes in demand and supply over the last several years (shale gas, Iran-Iraq and global slowdown) account for the bulk of changes.
US

Brexit

Question A: If the UK opts to withdraw from the European Union, and assuming Scotland stays in the UK, the level of the UK's real per-capita income a decade later will be lower than if it remains part of the EU.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: If the UK exits the EU, then it substantially increases the chances that some other current region of the EU will also exit within the following decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
6
US

China’s Growth

China’s growth model, specifically the unusually high investment rate and low consumption rate, is unsustainable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
US

Christmas Spending

An annual December spending surge on parties, gift-giving and personal travel delivers net social benefits.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
US

US Interest Rates

Question A: The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: Persistent low interest create credit misallocation as in the runup to the global crisis. This has to be balanced against Keynesian factors.
Question B: The Fed should have raised interest rates sooner, rather than leaving them near zero for this long.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
6
US

Quarterly Earnings

Question A:

Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
US

Standardized Tests

Comparing their students’ average gains on standardized tests over the school year makes it easier to predict which teachers — all else equal — are more likely to improve their student’s long-term life outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
5
Comment: Value-added evaluation is far from perfect. But given that teachers matter greatly, it's surely one of many indicators one should look at.
US

Poverty and Measurement

Question A: The association between health and economic growth in poor countries primarily involves faster growth generating better health, rather than the other way around.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Uncertain
5
Comment: Some estimates suggest effects from health to GDP, but the magnitudes are small. Considerable evidence exists on income to health channel
Question B: The decline in the fraction of people with incomes under, say, $1 per day is a good measure of whether well-being is improving among low-income populations.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
5
Comment: $1 a day is an arbitrary measure. It is informative about the bottom, but not about living standards among low middle income households.
US

Health Insurance Subsidies

Question A:

Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
6
Question B: Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Comment: A lot of uncertainty, and ACA has a lot of problems (esp. to rein in costs and tackle distortions). Probably still benefits outweigh costs.
US

$15 Minimum Wage

Question A: If the federal minimum wage is raised gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020, the employment rate for low-wage US workers will be substantially lower than it would be under the status quo.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
5
Comment: Low levels of minimum wage do not have significant negative employment effects, but the effects likely increase for higher levels.
Question B: Increasing the federal minimum wage gradually to $15-per-hour by 2020 would substantially increase aggregate output in the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
5
US

Greece’s Referendum

The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Greece may be better off without, the euro but political risks, especially with current government, would be great, so a no is very risky
US

Currency Manipulation

Question A: Economic analysis can identify whether countries are using their exchange rates to benefit their own people at the expense of their trading partners’ welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Question B: Bank of Japan monetary policies that result in a weaker yen make Americans generally worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
Comment: Americans benefit from cheaper Japanese goods and would not benefit from Japan in depression.
US

Nash Equilibrium

Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Strongly Agree
8
US

US Median Income

The 9% cumulative increase in real US median household income since 1980 substantially understates how much better off people in the median American household are now economically, compared with 35 years ago.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: But the same is true for the pre-1980 growth. So this number does NOT understate that growth of median income has declined after mid-1970s.
US

California’s Drought

Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
US

Raising Interest Rates

The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: I am worried about misallocation of capital & the wrong type of risk-taking resulting from extended periods of very very low interest rates.
US

Local Tax Incentives

Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a city or state typically generates local benefits that outweigh the costs to the city and/or state providing the incentives.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: The US as a whole benefits when cities or states compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
Comment: Such competition helps for local political economy reasons but may shift too much otherwise-public resources towards footloose companies.
US

Vaccines

Question A:

Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
9
Question B: Considering the costs of restricting free choice, and the share of people in the US who choose not to vaccinate their children for measles, the social benefit of mandating measles vaccines for all Americans (except those with compelling medical reasons) would exceed the social cost.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Agree
7
US

Greece

In 10 years, per capita purchasing power in Greece will be higher if — rather than continuing to service its debts over the next decade and complying with the budget rules currently in place — it refuses to accept a continuation of its current troika program and explicitly defaults on its debt held by the official sector.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: Greece's problems are political not just macroeconomic. Unclear whether default will help. Syriza's approach so far goes in wrong direction
US

Dynamic Scoring

Question A: Changing federal income tax rates, or the income bases to which those rates apply, can affect federal tax revenues partly by altering people’s behavior, and thus their actual or reported incomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Strongly Agree
9
Question B: To the extent that a given tax change might affect revenues partly by affecting national-income growth, existing research provides enough guidance to generate informative bounds on the size of any growth-driven revenue effect.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
6
Question C: For large proposed changes in tax rates or the tax base, official revenue forecasts provided to Congress would probably be more accurate if the CBO and JCT tried to estimate fully how the proposed tax changes would affect growth-driven revenue.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
US

Textbook Prices

Question A: Most college professors who assign textbooks would not be able to guess, within 10% of the actual figure, the retail price that their students pay for new copies of those books.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
5
Question B: Since students can resell college textbooks or rent electronic versions, the net burden on students is substantially lower than retail prices for new textbook purchases would suggest.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question C:
Even though the professors who select textbooks are different form the people who pay for them, the price of new edition college textbooks reflect classic forces of supply and demand.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
US

Oil Prices

The recent decline in oil prices will promote higher real GDP in the US over the next couple of years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: There will be a negative effect on the now sizable US energy sector, but the positive impact on the rest of the economy should dominate.
US

Economists and Conventions

A US city hosting a big convention will enjoy a higher boost to incremental spending — holding the number of visitors and their average incomes fixed — if those visitors are auto dealers rather than economists.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
US

Trade Balances

A typical country can increase its citizens’ welfare by enacting policies that would increase its trade surplus (or decrease its trade deficit).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
6
Comment: Consumption and investment smoothing is good. But often CA deficits support consumption booms that are unsustainable.
US

Repatriated Profits

Question A: Lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits for a year would boost US capital investment significantly.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Significantly unclear. Increase likely, but given limited SR opportunities, much might go to M&A or purchases/inflation of existing assets.
Question B: Permanently lowering the effective marginal tax rate on US corporations’ repatriated profits, such as by moving to a territorial-based tax system, would boost US capital investment significantly.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: This would also divert investment abroad in a distortionary fashion. Lower corporate taxes would be more powerful.
US

Fast-Track Authority

Question A: By lowering bargaining costs, fast-track negotiating authority for the president makes it more likely that the U.S. can conclude major trade deals.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: We underestimate the costs of trade through employment (e.g. with low-wage countries in manufacturing), net benefits still likely to be +.
US

Amazon and Market Power

Question A: Amazon has monopsony power in the market for books that is significantly reducing the supply of books.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
5
Question B:
Amazon has sufficient monopsony power that regulatory intervention is likely to make consumers of books better off, taking into account implementation costs and the effect of intervention on incentives.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
5
US

Piketty on Inequality

The most powerful force pushing towards greater wealth inequality in the US since the 1970s is the gap between the after-tax return on capital and the economic growth rate.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
6
Comment: Theoretically and empirically the case that r-g is a major determinant of inequality or even top inequality is weak.
-see background information here
US

Taxi Competition

Letting car services such as Uber or Lyft compete with taxi firms on equal footing regarding genuine safety and insurance requirements, but without restrictions on prices or routes, raises consumer welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
US

Scottish Independence

Although there are many issues for Scotland’s voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
US

Infrastructure (revisited)

Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2013. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: Past evidence suggests that there will be waste and corruption (a lot of corruption!). But this does not imply that average NPV is negative.
Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on October 1, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
US

Fracking (revisited)

New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on May 23, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Two caveats. How significant this effect will be is uncertain. It might have negative side effects by discouraging switch to cleaner energy.
Question A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs. (The experts panel previously voted on this question on February 15, 2012. Those earlier results can be found here.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Legislation introduced in Congress would require the Federal Reserve to "submit to the appropriate congressional committees…a Directive Policy Rule", which shall "describe the strategy or rule of the Federal Open Market Committee for the systematic quantitative adjustment of the Policy Instrument Target to respond to a change in the Intermediate Policy Inputs." Should the Fed deviate from the rule, the Fed Chair would have to "testify before the appropriate congressional committees as to why the [rule]…is not in compliance." Enacting this provision would improve monetary policy outcomes in the U.S.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
7
Comment: Given the increasingly important and discretionary role the Fed plays, supervision is essential. Congress may not be the right body to do it
US

Patents

Question A: All else equal, Patent Assertion Entities — which specialize in acquiring and asserting patents and are popularly known as “patent trolls" — promote innovation in the U.S.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
1
Disagree
5
Question B: Within the software industry, the US patent system makes consumers better off than they would be in the absence of patents.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
6
US

Liquidity

There is a social value to having institutions that issue liquid liabilities that are backed by illiquid assets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
US

Gary Becker

Question A: Employers that discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, if their customers do not care about their mix of employees, compared with firms that do not discriminate.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Comment: The only caveat is that if other employees have a taste for discrimination, they may take costly actions against the hiring of minorities.
Question B: Rising market wages are an important reason — over and above any changes in medical technology, social norms or preferences — why family sizes have fallen over the past century in rich countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
6
US

Net Neutrality II

Considering both distributional effects and changes in efficiency, it is a good idea to let companies that send video or other content to consumers pay more to Internet service providers for the right to send that traffic using faster or higher quality service.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
US

European Debt

The recent oversubscribed debt issues of Greece and Portugal suggest that sovereign default by any euro area country is unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
6
US

College Athletes

If the NCAA let colleges pay athletes with more than scholarships (which currently may cover tuition, books, room and board), then top colleges in men’s basketball and football would pay most athletes substantial sums beyond full scholarships.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
US

Russia Sanctions

Past experience suggests that economic sanctions do little to deter the target countries from their course of action.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: This is true for limited sanctions being imposed on Russia. Much more comprehensive sanctions as in South Africa or Iran would be effective.
US

Robots

Question A: Advancing automation has not historically reduced employment in the United States.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Question B: Information technology and automation are a central reason why median wages have been stagnant in the US over the past decade, despite rising productivity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Uncertain
6
US

Innovation and Growth

Future innovations worldwide will not be transformational enough to promote sustained per-capita economic growth rates in the U.S. and western Europe over the next century as high as those over the past 150 years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
10
Uncertain
6
Comment: The right answer is "uncertain". But "disagree" emphasizes that the view that we are running out of ideas, which has little basis.
US

Chairman Bernanke

Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
7
US

Surge Pricing

Using surge pricing to allocate transportation services — such as Uber does with its cars — raises consumer welfare through various potential channels, such as increasing the supply of those services, allocating them to people who desire them the most, and reducing search and queuing costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
8
US

Bah, Humbug

Giving specific presents as holiday gifts is inefficient, because recipients could satisfy their preferences much better with cash.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
1
Disagree
7
US

Low-Skilled Immigrants

Question A: The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
5
Question B: Unless they were compensated by others, many low-skilled American workers would be substantially worse off if a larger number of low-skilled foreign workers were legally allowed to enter the US each year.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Agree
6
US

Diversification

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by choosing a well-diversified, low-cost index fund than by picking a few stocks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Strongly Agree
9
US

Fed Policy

Question A: Enactment of the Senate bill to subject the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and discount window decisions to an audit by the Comptroller General of the U.S. would improve the Fed's legitimacy without hurting its decision making.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Strongly Disagree
7
Question B: The Fed should not reduce its purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasurys until there is clearer evidence of strong and sustained employment growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Agree
5
US

Net Neutrality

Allowing Internet service providers to charge content companies for access to the ISPs' customers would provide net benefits to consumers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Disagree
5
US

US Fiscal Risks

Question A: If the United States fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on government debt securities, even as an unintended consequence of political brinksmanship, US families and businesses are likely to suffer severe economic harm.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Question B: With or without a default, current uncertainty over future taxing and spending policies of the US government is likely to depress private investment and hiring by enough to reduce GDP growth by at least a quarter of a percentage point over the next 12 months.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
US

Capital Outflows

Experience over the past 30 years shows that for the typical emerging market nation facing rapid capital outflows, spending foreign currency reserves to defend its currency is a better policy for its citizens than not doing so.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
4
US

Airline Mergers

If regulators had not approved mergers in the past decade between major networked airlines, travelers would be better off today.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
US

Student Credit Risk

Conventional economic reasoning suggests that it would be a good policy to enact the recent Senate bill that would let undergraduate students borrow through the government Stafford program at interest rates equivalent to the primary credit rates offered to banks through the Federal Reserve's discount window.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
US

Savings Behavior

An effective way to increase savings rates of employees whose firms have defined contribution plans is to combine automatic enrollment in those plans and periodic automatic increases in their contributions (with the ability to opt out of either).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
1
Agree
7
Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption in ways that reduce the saving rate are likely to lower long-run living standards.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
US

Fogel on Slavery

Slavery in the United States was eradicated because of social and political events, not because it was an unprofitable institution for slaveholders.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
US

LNG Exports

Restricting US exports of liquefied natural gas would have adverse effects on the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
6
US

Infrastructure

Question A: Because the US has underspent on new projects, maintenance, or both, the federal government has an opportunity to increase average incomes by spending more on roads, railways, bridges and airports.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Question B: Past experience of public spending and political economy suggests that if the government spent more on roads, railways, bridges and airports, many of the projects would have low or negative returns.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: Average return is likely to be because of underspending in many activities, but many will be adopted because of politics and have <0 returns
Reducing the income-tax deductibility of charitable gifts is a less distortionary way to raise new revenue than raising the same amount of revenue through a proportional increase in all marginal tax rates.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
US

Bitcoin

A bitcoin's value derives solely from the belief that others will want to use it for trade, which implies that its purchasing power is likely to fluctuate over time to a degree that will limit its usefulness.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
US

High-Debt Countries

Countries that let their debt loads get high risk losing control of their own fiscal sustainability, through an adverse feedback loop in which doubts by lenders lead to higher government bond rates, which in turn make debt problems more severe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
US

Trade Deals

Refusing to liberalize trade unless partner countries adopt new labor or environmental rules is a bad policy, because even if the new standards would reduce distortions on some dimensions, such a policy involves threatening to maintain large distortions in the form of restricted trade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Not clear that increasing carbon-intensive imports from, say, China would be a step closer to a less distorted allocation.
US

Early Education

Using government funds to guarantee preschool education for four-year olds would yield a much lower social return than the ones achieved by the most highly touted targeted preschool initiatives.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
4
US

Minimum Wage

Question A:

Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for low-skilled workers to find employment.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
5
Question B:

The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to low-skilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
US

High-Skilled Immigrants

The average US citizen would be better off if a larger number of highly educated foreign workers were legally allowed to immigrate to the US each year.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
7
US

Japan’s Deflation

The persistent deflation in Japan since 1997 could have been avoided had the Bank of Japan followed different monetary policies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
US

Debt Ceiling

Because all federal spending and taxes must be approved by both houses of Congress and the executive branch, a separate debt ceiling that has to be increased periodically creates unneeded uncertainty and can potentially lead to worse fiscal outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
1
Agree
7
US

Small Firms

The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing small business growth than growth of economic output overall.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
6
US

Indexing

The annual indexing of Social Security benefits to increases in the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (the CPI-W) leads to higher benefits than would be required to compensate recipients for genuine cost-of-living increases.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
10
Uncertain
6
US

Carbon Taxes II

The Brookings Institution recently described a US carbon tax of $20 per ton, increasing at 4% per year, which would raise an estimated $150 billion per year in federal revenues over the next decade. Given the negative externalities created by carbon dioxide emissions, a federal carbon tax at this rate would involve fewer harmful net distortions to the US economy than a tax increase that generated the same revenue by raising marginal tax rates on labor income across the board.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
US

Ten-Year Budgets

Question A: Because federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid will continue to grow under current policy beyond the 10-year window of most political budget debates, it is easy for a politician to devise a budget plan that would reduce federal deficits over the next decade without really making the U.S. fiscally sustainable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: Comparing two plans that would reduce federal budget deficits by identical amounts in each of the next 10 years, one that did so partly by reducing significantly the long-term growth rate of Medicare and Medicaid spending would do more to make the U.S. budget fiscally sustainable than one that did not lower the growth of these spending programs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
7
Comment: Alternative could be as sound if it reduced growth rate of Social Security (e.g. by means testing) and reduced inefficient tax deductions.
Question A: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including the incentives of banks to ensure their own liquidity and solvency in the future — the benefits of bailing out U.S. banks in 2008 will end up exceeding the costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Agree
6
Question B: Because GM and Chrysler were bailed out in 2008-09, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would it have been if Congress and the executive branch had not intervened.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
6
Question C: Taking into account all of the economic consequences — including effects on corporate managers' incentives and on creditors' expectations of how their claims will be treated in future bankruptcies — the benefits of bailing out GM and Chrysler will end up exceeding the costs.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
6
US

Big Banks

Question A: The U.S government should make further efforts to shrink the size of the country's largest banks — such as by capping the size of their liabilities or penalizing large banks more heavily through taxes or other means — because the existing regulations do not require the biggest banks to internalize enough of the "too-big-to-fail" risks that they pose.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
6
Question B:

The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
5
US

Manufacturing

Question A: The federal government would make the average U.S. citizen better off by using policies that directly focus more on increasing manufacturing employment than employment in other sectors.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Disagree
6
Question B: Because firms and inventors do not capture the full returns from research and development, the government would increase the average well-being of Americans (and potentially of others too) by favoring R&D using the tax code.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
6
US

Medicare

Question A: Consider one of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that President Obama enacted in the Affordable Care Act — reducing Medicare-related payments to private insurers and altering the payment system for doctors and hospitals — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because over time the supply of doctors, hospitals and insurers willing to offer them health services may decline in response to restrained payments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Agree
6
Comment: There is fat and monopoly markups in the system to be cut. The problem with the ACA is the absence of across the board credible cost cutting
Question B: Consider the other of two proposals for restraining future Medicare spending, each by the same amount: The method that Governor Romney advocates — giving future seniors a fixed payment for premiums and letting private insurers compete with Medicare — imposes risks on future Medicare patients because competition may not be powerful to enough to offer future seniors the same quality of care that is currently promised without supplementing their premium support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Agree
6
Comment: the problem isn't lack of power from competition but other parts of the plan which do not make sense and may rely on cutting redistribution
US

Presidents and Jobs

Claims by incumbent presidents and challengers about how many private-sector jobs can be created in a four-year period by sector-level or other targeted policies should be viewed as rough guesses, because overall macroeconomic conditions drive aggregate employment in ways that dominate any net effects of polices that focus on specific industries or households.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
US

Taxing Capital and Labor

Question A: One drawback of taxing capital income at a lower rate than labor income is that it gives people incentives to relabel income that policymakers find hard to categorize as "capital" rather than labor".
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Question B: Despite relabeling concerns, taxing capital income at a permanently lower rate than labor income would result in higher average long-term prosperity, relative to an alternative that generated the same amount of tax revenue by permanently taxing capital and labor income at equal rates instead.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: Two things are ott confused. Continuously taxing savings is hugely inefficient. Taxing income at source even if it is capital income isn't.
Question C: Although they do not always agree about the precise likely effects of different tax policies, another reason why economists often give disparate advice on tax policy is because they hold differing views about choices between raising average prosperity and redistributing income.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Agree
7
US

U.S. State Budgets

Question A: By discounting pension liabilities at high interest rates under government accounting standards, many U.S. state and local governments understate their pension liabilities and the costs of providing pensions to public-sector workers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: During the next two decades some U.S. states, unless they substantially increase taxes, cut spending, and/or change public-sector pensions, will require a combination of severe austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
US

QE3

Question A: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases real GDP growth over the next two years, the increase will be inconsequential.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: Even if the third round of quantitative easing that the Fed recently announced increases annual consumer price inflation over the next five years, the increase will be inconsequential.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question C:

Even if inflationary pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in if it chooses to do so.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
US

Ethanol

Question A: Ethanol content requirements and protectionism against imported ethanol (which includes fuel from sugarcane) raise food prices without significantly reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: A direct disincentive to emit carbon-dioxide, for example through a carbon tax or an emissions permit market, is more efficient than requiring the use of corn-based ethanol fuels.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
US

European Debt

Question A: Even if all the official-sector funding that Greece received from 2010 through August 2012 is written off, propping up Greece to buy time for the rest of Europe to prepare for Greek default has been better for citizens of the Eurozone outside of Greece than a policy that would have cut off funding sooner.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
5
Question B: A substantial sovereign-debt default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain is a necessary condition for the euro area as a whole to grow at its pre-crisis trend rate over the next three years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Disagree
5
Question C: Unless there is a substantial default by some combination of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain on their sovereign debt and commercial bank debt, plus credible reforms to prevent excessive borrowing in the future, the euro area is headed for a costly financial meltdown and a prolonged recession.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Uncertain
4
US

Trade Barriers for Sugar

The current trade barriers in the U.S. sugar industry raise the profits of sugar producers and make the typical U.S. consumer pay more for sugar and goods that use sugar as an input.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
US

Student Loans

Question A: Loans to students attending for-profit colleges are especially risky because students attending them have had default rates that greatly exceed those for comparable students attending public and non-profit private institutions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Question B: Rules that tie each college's eligibility for federal student loans to its students' graduation rates and post-schooling employment outcomes would better protect taxpayers from losses on student loans.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
5
US

Money Market Funds

Question A: The way in which money market funds normally trade – at one dollar per share, even though the per-share value of the assets backing them varies over time – made them vulnerable to a run in 2008 before they received taxpayer guarantees.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Question B: Taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were instead required to trade at its floating net asset value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
7
Question C: In the absence of floating net asset values, taxpayers would be better protected if each money market fund in the U.S. were required to set aside capital to protect against losses while holding back a portion of shareholders' cash for a time when they seek to withdraw all of their money.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
US

Obesity and Soft Drinks

Taxes or bans on large bottles of soft drinks containing sugar are not likely to have a significant effect on obesity rates because people will substitute towards consuming excessive calories in other ways.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
US

Online Sales Taxes

Subjecting online sales from out-of-state vendors to the same retail sales taxes imposed on in-state sales would raise more tax revenue in the states making this change while reducing the pro-online bias of current policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
US

Cable-Satellite TV Fees

Consumers would not necessarily be better off if cable and satellite TV firms were required to offer a la carte pricing for individual channels, because the networks' programming charges and the satellite-and-cable fees could adjust in response to this rule.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
5
US

Healthcare and Taxes

Long run fiscal sustainability in the U.S. will require cuts in currently promised Medicare and Medicaid benefits and/or tax increases that include higher taxes on households with incomes below $250,000.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
8
US

Europe

Question A:

Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
6
Question B: If Germany fails to bail out the southern tier of Europe, its own economy will be hurt more — because of output and asset losses — than it would be by an unconditional bailout.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Question C: The main reason other eurozone countries need to worry about Greek banks losing access to ECB support is because the ensuing chaos in Greece could trigger bank runs in peripheral countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
US

Laffer Curve

Question A: A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would lead to higher GDP within five years than without the tax cut.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Question B: A cut in federal income tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would be higher within five years than without the tax cut.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
6
Strongly Disagree
7
US

China-US Trade

Question A: Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: But with lots of caveats. There are many losers; transaction costs of reallocation and technology transfer have significant costs.
Question B: Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
US

College Tuition

An important reason why private college and university tuition has risen faster than the CPI during the past few decades is because competition for faculty members — whose potential earnings in other sectors have steadily improved — has driven up their pay faster than their productivity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: This is not the only reason but one factor. Universities are also spending more on other inputs, including more on administration.
US

Fiscal Cliff

If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
US

Fracking

New technology for fracking natural gas, by lowering energy costs in the United States, will make US industrial firms more cost competitive and thus significantly stimulate the growth of US merchandise exports.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
US

Cuba’s Economy

Cuba’s low per-capita income growth — 1.2 percent per year since 1960 —has more to do with Cuba’s own economic policies than with the U.S. embargo on trade and tourism.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question A: Reducing the minimum retirement age in France from 62 back to age 60, permanently, would reduce long-term French economic growth and substantially raise French debt relative to GDP over time.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: France’s overall employment is higher today because of the 35 hour work week than it would be without a limit on weekly hours.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
6
US

Price Gouging

Connecticut should pass its Senate Bill 60, which states that during a “severe weather event emergency, no person within the chain of distribution of consumer goods and services shall sell or offer to sell consumer goods or services for a price that is unconscionably excessive.”
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
US

Security Screening

The former head of the Transportation Security Administration is correct in arguing that randomizing airport “security procedures encountered by passengers (additional upper-torso pat-downs, a thorough bag search, a swab test of carry-ons, etc.), while not subjecting everyone to the full gamut" would make it "much harder for terrorists to learn how to evade security procedures."
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
5
US

Ticket Resale

Laws that limit the resale of tickets for entertainment and sports events make potential audience members for those events worse off on average.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
7
Comment: Third degree price discrimination can make consumers on average better off or worse off.
US

Fannie and Freddie

Prior to the crisis, the benefits from the funding advantage that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had by virtue of perceived government support mostly went to their shareholders, rather than into substantially lower interest rates on residential mortgages.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Difficult to know how gains from subsidies were distributed between shareholders and mortgage-holders pre-crisis given implicit risks.
US

School Vouchers

Question A: If public school students had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools), most would be better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Too much uncertainty about equilibrium effects, though it is clear that public schools are failing and alternatives are necessary.
Question B: The main drawback to allowing all public school students to take the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools) would be that some students would not make an active choice and would be left with much worse peers and a weaker school.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
5
US

Too Big to Fail

Question A: The average size of the 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) would be substantially smaller if they did not have implicit government support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Uncertain
5
Question B: The 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) are big primarily because of economies of scale and scope, rather than because of implicit government support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
5
Comment: They are larger than they should be because of bailout guarantees and subsidies to leverage. There may also be economies of scale and scope.
US

Gasoline Prices

Changes in U.S. gasoline prices over the past 10 years have predominantly been due to market factors rather than U.S. federal economic or energy policies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
US

Free Trade

Question A: Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Economists often understate short-term employment costs, which are significant and unequally distributed, but probably less than benefits.
Question B: On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
1
Agree
6
US

Bank Bailouts

Because the U.S. Treasury bailed out and backstopped banks (by injecting equity into them in late 2008, and later committing to provide public capital to any banks that failed the stress tests and could not raise private capital), the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without these measures.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
6
US

Health-Care Licensing

Loosening current licensing restrictions on the range of services that nurses, physician assistants, dental hygienists and pharmacists are permitted to perform would help patients on balance, because the additional safety risks would be small compared to the decreased costs in waiting time and fees.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
6
US

Short Selling

Bans on the short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, lead to prices that are further, on average, from their fundamental values.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
5
Comment: I think this would depend on the type of mispricing. E.g., heterogeneous priors with shortselling can lead to wide swings in prices.
US

Economic Stimulus

Question A: Because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
Question B:

Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
US

Rent Control

Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
US

Executive Pay

Question A:

The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
4
Comment: CEOs received substantial rents, partly because pay is set by negotiation and with weak oversight. But bad CEO can do huge damage to a firm.
Question B:

Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a non-binding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Yes, but not sufficient given that disperse shareholders may not have sufficient incentives to monitor performance.
US

Inequality and Skills

One of the leading reasons for rising U.S. income inequality over the past three decades is that technological change has affected workers with some skill sets differently than others.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: But, importantly, it is not the only factor. The other three are: slower growth in the supply of skills; institutional changes; and trade.
US

Gold Standard

Question A:

If the US replaced its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard, defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the price-stability and employment outcomes would be better for the average American.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Strongly Disagree
8
Comment: A gold standard would have avoided the policy mistakes of the 2000s, but still likely that discretionary policy is useful during recessions
Question B: There are many factors besides US inflation risk that influence the current dollar price of gold.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
3
Strongly Agree
9
Comment: Gold is intrinsically close to useless, so its price is determined as a "bubble".
US

Congestion Pricing

In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Strongly Agree
8
US

Carbon Tax

A tax on the carbon content of fuels would be a less expensive way to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions than would a collection of policies such as “corporate average fuel economy” requirements for automobiles.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
US

Drug Use Policies

Question A: All else equal, making drugs illegal raises street prices for those drugs because suppliers require extra compensation for the risk of incarceration and other punishments.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
8
Comment: Only caveat (more drugs today increase addiction, demand and prices in the future) seems insufficient to reverse basic supply-demand result.
Question B: The Netherlands restrictions on “soft drugs” combined with a moderate tax aimed at deterring their consumption would have lower social costs than continuing to prohibit use of those drugs as in the US. (Click here for a summary of the Netherlands restrictions.)
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
5
Comment: The US war on drugs appears to be a total and very costly failure, so alternatives have to be tried and this one seems to have worked well.
US

Italy’s Debt

Question A:

Credible assumptions for inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either the Debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian interest rates on 10-year government debt remained at the November 30 level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond market.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
6
Comment: The question presumes that there is no possibility of debt restructuring that could keep debt to GDP stable and grant access to bond markets
Question B:

Absent outside help to deal with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spending-and-tax plan Italy can announce that would be credible enough to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its Debt-to-GDP ratio.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: This question again rules out the possibility of debt restructuring. Also not clear that effective ECB commitments must be unlimited.
US

Healthcare

There are no consequential distortions created by the tax preference that favors obtaining health insurance through employers.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
7
Strongly Disagree
8
Comment: Linking health insurance to (current) employment distorts both labor market choices and health care decisions.
US

Buy American

Federal mandates that government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional circumstances, such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
5
Comment: 4 years ago I would have disagreed. Recent evidence (Autor Dorn Hanson) suggests yes.Caveat: costs from higher prices & other inefficiencies
-see background information here
US

Tax Reform

Question A: Eliminating tax deductions for non-investment personal interest expenses (e.g., on mortgages), with reductions in personal tax rates that are both budget neutral and keep the burden of taxes by income group the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by individuals.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: There is no reasonable Pigovian justification for mortgage deductions, which are not only distortionary but also generally regressive.
Question B: Reducing the deductibility of interest expenses for non-financial businesses to equalize the overall tax cost of debt and equity financing, while using the extra revenue to reduce personal and corporate tax rates in a budget neutral fashion that also keeps the burden of taxes the same, would lead to more efficient financing decisions by firms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Caveat: the appropriate corporate tax reduction is important here, since many firms do not have access to equity financing.
US

Stock Prices

Question A: Unless they have inside information, very few investors, if any, can consistently make accurate predictions about whether the price of an individual stock will rise or fall on a given day.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: Plausible expectations of future dividends, discounted using a plausible risk-adjusted interest rate, explain well the level of stock prices for recently listed internet businesses in 1999.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Disagree
7
US

Exchange Rates

The Chinese government pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
US

Education

Public school students would receive a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own education and turning that money into vouchers that they could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of their choice (e.g. charter schools).

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Vouchers likely to improve things in short run given the awful state of US public schools. But we know little about their long run effects.
US

Taxes

Question A: All else equal, permanently raising the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income by 1 percentage point for those in the top (i.e., currently 35%) tax bracket would increase federal tax revenue over the next 10 years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: Disincentive effects on labor supply and entrepreneurship, and tax avoidance are likely, but not large enough to reduce revenues.
Question B:

The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
6
Disagree
7
Comment: More comprehensive increases in taxes and reduction in tax expenditures, or preferably systematic means testing of SS-Medicare are necessary
US

Monetary Policy

All else equal, the Fed's new plan to increase the maturity of its Treasury holdings will boost expected real GDP growth for calendar year 2012 by at least one percentage point.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
4
Comment: Expansionary policy, aimed at reducing long-term interest rates. Should be successful but no idea about whether it gets 1% growth for 2012.