Question A:
US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
5%
0%
0%
17%
45%
17%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
15%
58%
27%
Question B:
US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
5%
0%
33%
36%
10%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
38%
46%
16%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They are more likely to increase the corporate profits of listed firms than all firms, and also in the short/medium run rather than long run
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The after-tax part is crucial.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even if there is no impact on before-tax profits, stock market investors generally believe that corporate tax rates will drop a lot.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Changes in stock prices are largely unpredictable. No real way to identify the increase in stock prices to Trump.
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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companies like tax cuts
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two forces in the universe are really hard to predict or understand: Trump and the stock market.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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People, probably correctly, expect lower corporate taxes and fewer regulations. Go figure.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pure Animal Spirits would seem to be the best explanation.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The rise in prices could be due to a reduction in uncertainty, not to a change in expectations.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Enthusiasm driven by the expectation of regulatory relief and concomitant investment, growth and profits.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Can't be proven one way or another, this is plausible but no way to know for sure
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Trump + Republican Congress = lower tax rate on corporate profits.
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to separate the different causes. The impact of tax policies seems the most important reason, particularly the cut in business taxes.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is too much uncertainty about his policies to know for sure, but they appear to auger well for corporate profits.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More precisely, most market participants believe Trump's policies are likely to increase corporate profits
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to imagine what else it could be.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Explaining any short term movement in stock prices is a fools game, but this explanation is a plausible one.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Corporate tax cuts and defense / some infrastructure spending may happen with a unified government.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They are much more likely to be disastrous for the economy and the US political system. The economic policies we know about are shambles.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some policies likely to boost growth, at least temporarily. Others likely to suppress it. Hard to say!
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Uncertain because real winners and losers.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, investors do seem to perceive this, from commentary. The degree to which it will happen cannot be predicted with as much confidence.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maybe would have risen also if Clinton had been elected.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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High income tax cuts aren't stimulative and infrastructure takes years
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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see above
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I see no reason to think that growth will be higher because of Trump's policies, which are probably bad for the economy overall.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I do not agree with the premise that his policies are likely to increase growth in the long run.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Again, regulatory relief expected to drive investment and growth.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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also impossible to know and the horizon that matters for stocks is longer term growth and after tax earnings
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the weight put on a trade war vs. stimulative fiscal policy -- and the Fed's response.
-see background information here |
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Here, the Keynesian impact of tax cuts on output is partly offset by likely higher real interest rates.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Despite bold claims about growth, the new administration has not described an effective policy to increase GDP growth.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stock returns are poor predictors of future changes in output (see e.g. Stock and Watson 2003 Journal of Economic Literature)
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Share prices depend on profits, not GDP. Tax cuts plus more spending may increase GDP in the short run. but profits are what matter .
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is hard to know what Trump's policies will be since he contradicts himself repeatedly, but he shows no signs of understanding economics.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In the short run, which dominates, fiscal stimulus or barriers to trade? The longer run looks bad for many reasons.
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