Question A:
US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
5%
0%
0%
17%
45%
17%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
0%
15%
58%
27%
Question B:
US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.
Responses
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
17%
5%
0%
33%
36%
10%
0%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
© 2025. Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets.
0%
38%
46%
16%
0%
Question A Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
They are more likely to increase the corporate profits of listed firms than all firms, and also in the short/medium run rather than long run
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
The after-tax part is crucial.
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Even if there is no impact on before-tax profits, stock market investors generally believe that corporate tax rates will drop a lot.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Changes in stock prices are largely unpredictable. No real way to identify the increase in stock prices to Trump.
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
companies like tax cuts
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Two forces in the universe are really hard to predict or understand: Trump and the stock market.
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
People, probably correctly, expect lower corporate taxes and fewer regulations. Go figure.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Pure Animal Spirits would seem to be the best explanation.
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
The rise in prices could be due to a reduction in uncertainty, not to a change in expectations.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Enthusiasm driven by the expectation of regulatory relief and concomitant investment, growth and profits.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Can't be proven one way or another, this is plausible but no way to know for sure
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Trump + Republican Congress = lower tax rate on corporate profits.
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to separate the different causes. The impact of tax policies seems the most important reason, particularly the cut in business taxes.
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
There is too much uncertainty about his policies to know for sure, but they appear to auger well for corporate profits.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
More precisely, most market participants believe Trump's policies are likely to increase corporate profits
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Hard to imagine what else it could be.
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Explaining any short term movement in stock prices is a fools game, but this explanation is a plausible one.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
Corporate tax cuts and defense / some infrastructure spending may happen with a unified government.
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Question B Participant Responses
Participant |
University |
Vote |
Confidence |
Bio/Vote History |
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
They are much more likely to be disastrous for the economy and the US political system. The economic policies we know about are shambles.
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![]() Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Some policies likely to boost growth, at least temporarily. Others likely to suppress it. Hard to say!
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![]() Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Uncertain because real winners and losers.
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![]() David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Yes, investors do seem to perceive this, from commentary. The degree to which it will happen cannot be predicted with as much confidence.
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![]() Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Maybe would have risen also if Clinton had been elected.
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![]() Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
High income tax cuts aren't stimulative and infrastructure takes years
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![]() Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
see above
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![]() Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
I see no reason to think that growth will be higher because of Trump's policies, which are probably bad for the economy overall.
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![]() Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
I do not agree with the premise that his policies are likely to increase growth in the long run.
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![]() Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
Again, regulatory relief expected to drive investment and growth.
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![]() Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
also impossible to know and the horizon that matters for stocks is longer term growth and after tax earnings
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![]() Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
Depends on the weight put on a trade war vs. stimulative fiscal policy -- and the Fed's response.
-see background information here |
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![]() Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Here, the Keynesian impact of tax cuts on output is partly offset by likely higher real interest rates.
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![]() Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
Despite bold claims about growth, the new administration has not described an effective policy to increase GDP growth.
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![]() José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
Stock returns are poor predictors of future changes in output (see e.g. Stock and Watson 2003 Journal of Economic Literature)
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![]() Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
Share prices depend on profits, not GDP. Tax cuts plus more spending may increase GDP in the short run. but profits are what matter .
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![]() Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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![]() Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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![]() Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
It is hard to know what Trump's policies will be since he contradicts himself repeatedly, but he shows no signs of understanding economics.
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![]() Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
In the short run, which dominates, fiscal stimulus or barriers to trade? The longer run looks bad for many reasons.
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