Question A:
Replacing the current US health insurance system (including employer-based health insurance, ACA exchange policies, and Medicaid) with universal ‘Medicare for All’ (mandatory enrollment in a modified version of the existing traditional Medicare program with drug coverage and no cost-sharing of any form, and current Medicare reimbursement rates) funded by federal taxes would lead to improved access to healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Replacing the current US health insurance system as outlined in a) would lead to longer waiting times for healthcare for a meaningful subset of the population.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increased coverage is almost by definition. Probably better to allow top-up by private insurance and other means, and add more cost controls
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If everyone is made to participate, and there are some uncovered now, access will increase, almost by definition.
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The question does not discuss cost and other tradeoffs. Currently, many are not covered. All would be covered by this proposal.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This does not mean that it is a good idea
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some people are uninsured right now and would benefit from the policy, which could be financed by taxing richer people.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Medicare reimbursemt rates are implicitly set by private reimbursemt rates.W/Medicare for all, rates might fall,reducing physician supply
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This would be a bad idea but I suspect a "meaningful" subset would benefit. I believe there are better ways to help them.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the details (including the costs) of implementation.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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essentially true by definition -- unless somehow implementation is totally botched.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Seems likely, although it would depend on funding and implementation
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The ACA has helped, but Census estimates show show 25-30 million people uninsured.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Specially in states w/o medicaid expansion. Universal coverage with complementary private insurance and copay (as France) would be better.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some would lose: some rural hospitals would likely fail at current Medicare reimbursement rates.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some people would have improved access but others would have less access. Supply cannot increase very quickly
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This narrow claim seems to be true almost by definition.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not clear what meaningful is. Without private insurance, some will definitely experience longer queues. Details matter greatly.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Too many free parameters to make a prediction
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very hard to sketch a new equilibrium with this set of facts.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably, but Americans dont like waiting, and may complain successfully, as in VA
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Empirical evidence (e.g. Canada) suggests longer wait times for many. Currently, of course, some are waiting "forever" for health care.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More access implies longer waits unless there is a way to get more providers.
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There's nothing optimal about allocating medical care by wasteful waiting.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Currently well off people can through private insurance get high quality care fast.This option would be closed off; rationing would ensue.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I believe there are no examples worldwide of universal, gov't-provided healthcare in which rationing based on wait times does not occur.
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some forms of rationing would have to be used and queuing times is one likely result.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on the details (including the costs) of implementation.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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likely to also be true, particularly for people that might lose very generous insurance
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends a lot on reimbursement rates. At current medicare rates, it's possible, but likely would be lobbying to raise rates.
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Longer delays is consistent with the experience of other countries.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Copay, with appropriate provisions for the chronically sick, would help minimize waiting times.
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Increasing demand in capacity-constrained areas would increase wait times, at least in the short run.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Supply cannot increase quickly
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James Stock |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This seems to be almost inevitable.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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... and reduced waiting time for others.
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