Question A:
Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question C:
European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Based on my reading of the research, not the only reason, but, in most countries, the main one.
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 Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rising inequality is leading voters to search for desperate solutions - Trump and Brexit are the most obvious - damaging long run properity.
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 Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is not only one inequality to consider. Labour earnings inequality has been rising everywhere, especially for men. This maybe key.
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 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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True where there is a rise in inequality. Inequalities are not the only, neither always the main source of pressure on liberal democracies.
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 Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is not so much inequality per se, but the economic insecurity faced by people in western countries
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 Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not inequality per se undermines democracy, but the degree to which being rich or poor becomes hereditary.
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 Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Feels that way @moment. Theories to support; evidence less clear. Also argument: greater econ. inequality -> greater political inequality
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rising inequality is a contributing factor; but real or imagined threats from immigration are more salient in Europe. Populists exploit both
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 Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The median voter becomes increasingly frustrated. The enclosed paper shows theoretically how rising inequality boosts populism.
-see background information here |
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 Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The idea of liberal democracy is that there is sharing in the rewards from growth.
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 Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Populist parties/ extreme right, left exploit anger and resentment (Brexit, Trump, Liga, etc...). Lobbies/large donations pervert democracy.
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 Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Inequality & stagnation of median pay more of an influence; e.g. Brexit
-see background information here |
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 John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The health of liberal democracy is under strain not only in countries where inequality has risen
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 Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But income inequality is only one of the issues and in many countries not the main one. In many regional inequality is more important.
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 Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More a political science question than an economics one. Stagnant median earnings perhaps a greater issue than inequality per se.
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 Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's one factor, among several.
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 Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Reducing inequality is critical for battling populism - otherwise desperate voters will turn to racist populists
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The UK & France redistribute quite a bit. This has not stemmed populism much. It may be the position of the low skill in the labour market.
-see background information here |
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No general answer. Depends on the country. Sometimes better schooling or better targeted transfers rather than more transfers is required.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unemployment, immigration and the design of the European project are as important causes of populism in Europe. Redistribution is not all.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Populism is spread out in many EU countries that already distribute a lot
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Populism - as today's new nationalism - is driven by doubts about future living standard and way of life, rather than inequality at home.
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If link in A) is true & policies successful in limiting inequality, then agree. But evidence for link in A) is tenuous.
-see background information here |
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Announcement effects of such policies could have short-term benefits; but the direct effects will only be long-term
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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But not all kinds of redistribution work, and redistribution alone is not enough. Many peoples’ concerns are non-economic.
-see background information here |
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Populism does not necessarily have a common cause across European countries, but in some countries redistribution might help
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Only proviso is that they are done in a way that targets mainly poverty - e.g., as in the Nordics
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Details matter a lot. Political process, education also need reforms.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Causes of the rise of populism do not seem well enough understood
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Redistribution is already very high and it does not seem ti mollify people much
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Europe already does plenty of redistribution. And some populist parties (Brexit\Lega) actually have anti-redistribution policy platforms.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Much is done in France and yet we had the Yellow Vests.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Question C Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Franklin Allen |
Imperial College London | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Pol Antras |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Timothy J. Besley |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Olivier Blanchard |
Peterson Institute | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This fits with my view that, in many countries, a more accommodating fiscal policy is needed on other grounds at this juncture
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Nicholas Bloom |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Voting for populists is the way voters left out from growth punish the economy - they vote crazies like Trump - so we need to buy them off.
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Richard William Blundell |
University College London | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agnès Bénassy-Quéré |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Redistribution between living generations should not be financed by debt.
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Elena Carletti |
Bocconi | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jean-Pierre Danthine |
Paris School of Economics | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Agree (even though vague statement and fighting populism is not only a money issue) because populism is a very important threat.
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Paul De Grauwe |
LSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Eeckhout |
UPF Barcelona | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ernst Fehr |
Universität Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Xavier Freixas |
Barcelona GSE | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln |
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jordi Galí |
Barcelona GSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Francesco Giavazzi |
Bocconi | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rachel Griffith |
University of Manchester | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Veronica Guerrieri |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Luigi Guiso |
Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance | Bio/Vote History | ||
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They should adopt policies to fight populism, but expansionary fiscal policies are not the medicine.
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Patrick Honohan |
Trinity College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beata Javorcik |
University of Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Henrik Kleven |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Jan Pieter Krahnen |
Goethe University Frankfurt | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Fighting populism-nationalism needs bold decisions promoting a sense of relevance and pride for European politics. That is no spending issue
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Per Krusell |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Botond Kőszegi |
Central European University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eliana La Ferrara |
Harvard Kennedy | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christian Leuz |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While limiting extreme populism likely good, focus should be on inequality& its neg effects. Populism can be exercise of democratic rights.
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Thierry Mayer |
Sciences-Po | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Costas Meghir |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Peter Neary |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Retreating from austerity in UK, or boosting Eurozone aggregate demand, plus efforts to reduce inequality should help, if sold positively
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Kevin O'Rourke |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marco Pagano |
Università di Napoli Federico II | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It very much depends on the fiscal space of the country being considered: e.g., a positive reply is more suited to Germany than to Italy.
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Lubos Pastor |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Other approaches, such as giving more protection for communal experiences of Europeans and their communities, could achieve more than money.
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Torsten Persson |
Stockholm University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Same qualifier as previous question
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Christopher Pissarides |
London School of Economics and Political Science | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Populism is the biggest risk to European unity
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Richard Portes |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Canice Prendergast |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lucrezia Reichlin |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Rafael Repullo |
CEMFI | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hélène Rey |
London Business School | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Depends on policy. Scrapping carbon tax to please Gilets Jaunes not a good policy.
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Antoinette Schoar |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Daniel Sturm |
London School of Economics | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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John Van Reenen |
LSE | Bio/Vote History | ||
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John Vickers |
Oxford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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While some policies that might curb the rise of populism in Europe have merit, some others plainly do not
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Hans-Joachim Voth |
University of Zurich | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Beatrice Weder di Mauro |
The Graduate Institute, Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Karl Whelan |
University College Dublin | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Unclear to me which areas of spending would do this. Better to evaluate spending proposals on their objective merits.
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Charles Wyplosz |
The Graduate Institute Geneva | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This could and should be done without increasing deficits.
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Fabrizio Zilibotti |
Yale University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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